Bitcoin Rainbow Chart
A rainbow chart draws coloured bands around a logarithmic regression of the Bitcoin price. Ours fits log price against the log of Bitcoin's age in days by least squares and places the band edges at fixed quantiles of how far each day closed from the fit, so each band holds a known share of past days. The dashed median line splits the days in half.
On 13 Nov 2026 Bitcoin ($69,394) is in band 3 of 8, below the median line: relative to the fitted curve, the price was lower on 22% of the days since 17 Aug 2017. The median line is at $98,926 today, so the price is 0.70× that level. The fit uses 3,376 daily closes: log10(price) = 4.381 × log10(days since 3 Jan 2009) − 11.694. It is refitted every day, so the bands shift slightly as new days arrive.
Bitcoin rainbow chart
17 Aug 2017 – 13 Nov 2026 · log price · CSVBTC price median line 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
The fit covers every daily close from 17 Aug 2017. The chart plots every 8th day to stay light; the CSV has every day. Not financial advice: these pages describe what each indicator showed in past cycles and predict nothing.
Today's rainbow bands
price range of each band today| Band | From | To | Share of past days |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8. Far above the median line | $249,557 | $393,943 | 5% |
| 7. Well above the median line | $165,596 | $249,557 | 10% |
| 6. Above the median line | $136,994 | $165,596 | 15% |
| 5. Just above the median line | $98,926 | $136,994 | 20% |
| 4. Just below the median line | $75,965 | $98,926 | 20% |
| 3. Below the median line (today) | $64,521 | $75,965 | 15% |
| 2. Well below the median line | $50,344 | $64,521 | 10% |
| 1. Far below the median line | $37,254 | $50,344 | 5% |
Rainbow chart FAQ
How is this rainbow chart made?
We fit a straight line to log10(price) against log10(days since 3 January 2009) by ordinary least squares, using every daily close shown. Each day's residual is how far its close sits above or below that line. The band edges are the fit shifted by the 0, 5, 15, 30, 50, 70, 85, 95 and 100th percentiles of all residuals, so the eight bands hold 5, 10, 15, 20, 20, 15, 10 and 5% of past days.
Is this the same as other Bitcoin rainbow charts?
No. Colour bands around a logarithmic regression have circulated since about 2014, and several sites draw their own versions with hand-picked bands. This chart uses its own fit, band edges set by data quantiles, neutral band names and its own colours, and it is refitted every day from the price history shown.
Why do the bands move?
Because the fit and the percentiles are recomputed daily over all the history, each new day nudges them a little. A long rally or crash shifts them more. Past days can therefore change band slightly over time; the CSV gives today's fit for every day.
Where does the price data come from?
Daily closing prices (00:00 UTC) of Bitcoin from exchange public APIs: Binance spot BTCUSDT from 17 Aug 2017. Moving averages start once enough days of history have passed. The data refreshes every few hours, and today's close is the latest price so far. Each chart's data is free to download as CSV.
Is this a buy or sell signal?
No. These indicators describe how the price moved against its own averages in past cycles, and Bitcoin has had only a handful of cycles, so any pattern rests on very few examples. Nothing here is financial advice.