Bitcoin AHR999 Index
The AHR999 index multiplies two ratios: the Bitcoin price over its 200-day cost (the geometric mean of the last 200 daily closes) and the price over a growth-model price fitted to Bitcoin's age in days. Its author treated readings below 0.45 as unusually cheap and 0.45–1.2 as a range for regular buying. The chart shows every day's value on a log scale.
On 13 Nov 2026 the AHR999 index is 0.34: Bitcoin ($67,943) is 0.94× its 200-day geometric-mean cost ($72,616) and 0.37× the growth-model price for coin age 6,523 days ($184,660). That is below 0.45, a level the index was under on 17% of the days since 4 Mar 2018, mostly around bear-market lows. Its lowest reading in this data was 0.22 on 12 Mar 2020 and its highest 9.34 on 21 Feb 2021.
AHR999 index history
17 Aug 2017 – 13 Nov 2026 · log scale · CSVAHR999 below 0.45 above 1.2
The indicator starts on 4 Mar 2018, once the price history covers its longest average. The chart plots every 8th day to stay light; the CSV has every day. Not financial advice: these pages describe what each indicator showed in past cycles and predict nothing.
AHR999 index FAQ
How is the AHR999 index calculated?
AHR999 = (price ÷ 200-day cost) × (price ÷ growth-model price). The 200-day cost is the geometric mean of the last 200 daily closes. The growth-model price comes from log10(price) = 5.84 × log10(coin age) − 17.01, where coin age is the number of days since 3 January 2009, the day of Bitcoin's genesis block. Both ratios equal 1 when the price sits exactly on each yardstick.
Who created the AHR999 index?
A Chinese Bitcoin investor and blogger who writes as “ahr999”. He proposed it as a guide for dollar-cost averaging, together with the growth-model formula above, and it is still quoted mostly in Chinese-language crypto media.
What do the 0.45 and 1.2 lines mean?
They are the thresholds its author used. Below 0.45 the price was well under both its recent cost and the long-run growth model, which has happened mostly around bear-market lows. Between 0.45 and 1.2 he considered regular buying reasonable; above 1.2 the price was stretched against both. They are rules of thumb from one investor, not tested signals.
Where does the price data come from?
Daily closing prices (00:00 UTC) of Bitcoin from exchange public APIs: Binance spot BTCUSDT from 17 Aug 2017. Moving averages start once enough days of history have passed. The data refreshes every few hours, and today's close is the latest price so far. Each chart's data is free to download as CSV.
Is this a buy or sell signal?
No. These indicators describe how the price moved against its own averages in past cycles, and Bitcoin has had only a handful of cycles, so any pattern rests on very few examples. Nothing here is financial advice.