Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curve
The logarithmic growth curve draws two curves under and over the Bitcoin price: a lower curve through past cycle lows and an upper curve through past cycle highs, both straight lines when log price is plotted against log time. We draw the published curves (Cryptonerds, 2024), we do not fit them. The reading is where the price sits between them, from 0% (lower curve) to 100% (upper).
On 3 Oct 2026 the lower growth curve is at $57,274 and the upper at $322,634; Bitcoin ($84,637) sits 23% of the way between them on a log scale. The curves are the published Cryptonerds (2024) model, fitted by its authors on the cycle highs and lows of 2011-2022; we only evaluate them on each day of our price history. Since 17 Aug 2017 the daily close has been outside the curves on 73 of 3,335 days. The model describes where past highs and lows fell; it is not a forecast.
Bitcoin logarithmic growth curve
17 Aug 2017 – 3 Oct 2026 · log price · CSVBTC price upper curve (published) midpoint lower curve (published)
Curves from the published model, not our fit: Cryptonerds, “The Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curve: An Optimized Model for 2024 and Beyond” (Medium and TradingView, 21 September 2024). Lower curve: price = 10^(4.684 × log10(x) − 9.034); upper curve: price = 10^(4.058 × log10(x) − 6.44); x is the weekly bar number, which the source does not anchor; we take week 1 as 28 Nov 2009, which reproduces the cycle highs and lows it lists. Drawn over our price history from 17 Aug 2017; the close was outside the curves on 73 of 3,335 days. A model, not a forecast. The chart plots every 7th day to stay light; the CSV has every day. Not financial advice: these pages describe what each indicator showed in past cycles and predict nothing.
The curves and the price by year
curve values on the first day of each year; days with the close below / above the curves| Year | Lower curve | Upper curve | Days below / above |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $1,489 | $13,660 | 0 / 10 of 137 |
| 2018 | $1,858 | $16,553 | 0 / 2 of 365 |
| 2019 | $3,202 | $26,522 | 0 / 0 of 365 |
| 2020 | $5,214 | $40,459 | 7 / 0 of 366 |
| 2021 | $8,117 | $59,369 | 0 / 0 of 365 |
| 2022 | $12,150 | $84,200 | 44 / 0 of 365 |
| 2023 | $17,613 | $116,152 | 10 / 0 of 365 |
| 2024 | $24,845 | $156,486 | 0 / 0 of 366 |
| 2025 | $34,261 | $206,719 | 0 / 0 of 365 |
| 2026 | $46,244 | $268,055 | 0 / 0 of 276 |
Log growth curve FAQ
Where do the growth curves come from?
They are the published model of Cryptonerds, “The Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curve: An Optimized Model for 2024 and Beyond” (Medium and TradingView, 21 September 2024): upper curve price = 10^(4.058 × log10(x) − 6.44), lower curve price = 10^(4.684 × log10(x) − 9.034), with x the weekly bar number. The authors fitted them on the cycle highs and lows of 2011 to 2022. We do not refit them on our data.
Which week is week 1?
The source does not say where its weekly bar count starts. We take week 1 as the week of 28 November 2009 (329 days after the genesis block), which reproduces the eight cycle highs and lows the authors list to within about 23%. Our own price history starts in 2017, so the chart shows the curves over that period.
Is the growth curve a forecast?
No. It is a curve drawn through where past highs and lows fell. The price has broken out of it before and can again; the page counts the days it closed outside the curves.
Where does the price data come from?
Daily closing prices (00:00 UTC) of Bitcoin from exchange public APIs: Binance spot BTCUSDT from 17 Aug 2017. Moving averages start once enough days of history have passed. The data refreshes every few hours, and today's close is the latest price so far. Each chart's data is free to download as CSV.
Is this a buy or sell signal?
No. These indicators describe how the price moved against its own averages in past cycles, and Bitcoin has had only a handful of cycles, so any pattern rests on very few examples. Nothing here is financial advice.