What happens after a volume spike?
Every volume spike this site detects is followed up: the price 5 minutes, 15 minutes and 1 hour later is compared with the price at the spike. These tables count how often price kept going in the spike's direction (the hit rate) and how far it went, broken down by exchange, spike level, buy or sell side and spot, perp or HIP-3 market. Past outcomes, not a forecast.
These tables are as of 13 Nov 02:12 UTC: the spike history database did not answer the latest refresh, so the last complete figures are shown. Across 586,177 buy- and sell-side volume spikes with a 1-hour outcome (27 Sep 2026 – 13 Nov 2026), price an hour later had moved past the spike minute's close in the spike's direction 47.8% of the time; the median follow-through was -0.02%. After 15 minutes the hit rate was 46.3% over 587,007 spikes (median -0.02%). Buy-side spikes: 45.5% hit after 1 hour (n = 268,809); sell-side: 49.8% (n = 317,368).
All spikes · All history
728842 volume spikes, 27 Sep 2026 – 13 Nov 2026 (UTC)| After | Spikes measured | Hit rate | Lower quartile | Median | Upper quartile | Mean | Date range (UTC) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 min | 587217 | 45.9% | -0.17% | -0.01% | +0.14% | 0.00% | 27 Sep 2026 – 13 Nov 2026 |
| 15 min | 587007 | 46.3% | -0.29% | -0.02% | +0.23% | -0.01% | 27 Sep 2026 – 13 Nov 2026 |
| 1 hour | 586177 | 47.8% | -0.51% | -0.02% | +0.45% | -0.01% | 27 Sep 2026 – 13 Nov 2026 |
By exchange
27 Sep 2026 – 13 Nov 2026 (UTC)| +5m | +15m | +1h | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rate | Median | Hit rate | Median | Hit rate | Median | |
| Binance | 45.0%n = 307563 | -0.01%-0.19% … +0.15% | 45.7%n = 307455 | -0.02%-0.32% … +0.24% | 47.4%n = 307038 | -0.02%-0.55% … +0.48% |
| Bybit | 46.5%n = 166550 | -0.01%-0.17% … +0.14% | 46.7%n = 166492 | -0.02%-0.28% … +0.23% | 48.1%n = 166235 | -0.02%-0.50% … +0.45% |
| Hyperliquid | 47.2%n = 113104 | -0.01%-0.13% … +0.11% | 47.6%n = 113060 | -0.01%-0.23% … +0.19% | 48.7%n = 112904 | -0.01%-0.42% … +0.38% |
By spike level
27 Sep 2026 – 13 Nov 2026 (UTC)| +5m | +15m | +1h | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rate | Median | Hit rate | Median | Hit rate | Median | |
| Level 1: 4–8× normal volume | 46.6%n = 180097 | -0.01%-0.17% … +0.14% | 47.2%n = 180040 | -0.01%-0.28% … +0.23% | 48.4%n = 179811 | -0.01%-0.51% … +0.47% |
| Level 2: 8–16×, or level 1 confirmed on another venue | 45.9%n = 159661 | -0.01%-0.16% … +0.13% | 46.4%n = 159588 | -0.02%-0.27% … +0.22% | 48.1%n = 159371 | -0.02%-0.49% … +0.44% |
| Level 3: 16×+, or level 2 confirmed on another venue | 45.4%n = 247459 | -0.01%-0.18% … +0.15% | 45.6%n = 247379 | -0.02%-0.31% … +0.23% | 47.2%n = 246995 | -0.02%-0.52% … +0.45% |
By direction
27 Sep 2026 – 13 Nov 2026 (UTC)| +5m | +15m | +1h | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rate | Median | Hit rate | Median | Hit rate | Median | |
| Buy-side spikesa hit is price up | 45.1%n = 269332 | -0.01%-0.18% … +0.13% | 45.5%n = 269245 | -0.02%-0.29% … +0.22% | 45.5%n = 268809 | -0.05%-0.56% … +0.39% |
| Sell-side spikesa hit is price down | 46.6%n = 317885 | 0.00%-0.17% … +0.15% | 47.0%n = 317762 | -0.01%-0.28% … +0.24% | 49.8%n = 317368 | 0.00%-0.47% … +0.50% |
Spot vs perp vs HIP-3
27 Sep 2026 – 13 Nov 2026 (UTC)| +5m | +15m | +1h | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rate | Median | Hit rate | Median | Hit rate | Median | |
| Perpetual futures | 45.6%n = 329053 | -0.02%-0.19% … +0.15% | 45.9%n = 328934 | -0.03%-0.32% … +0.24% | 47.7%n = 328504 | -0.03%-0.56% … +0.49% |
| Spot | 45.6%n = 202897 | 0.00%-0.16% … +0.14% | 46.4%n = 202827 | -0.01%-0.27% … +0.23% | 47.7%n = 202518 | -0.01%-0.49% … +0.44% |
| HIP-3 (Hyperliquid builder perps) | 48.7%n = 55267 | 0.00%-0.10% … +0.10% | 49.0%n = 55246 | 0.00%-0.17% … +0.16% | 49.3%n = 55155 | 0.00%-0.33% … +0.32% |
Coins with the most spikes
Top 20 of 894 · 27 Sep 2026 – 13 Nov 2026| Coin | Spikes | Hit rate +1h | Median +1h |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 18266 | 47.7% | -0.01% |
| SOL | 17440 | 48.4% | -0.01% |
| ETH | 15632 | 47.0% | -0.02% |
| XRP | 15109 | 47.4% | -0.02% |
| NEAR | 14825 | 49.1% | -0.02% |
| ZEC | 14494 | 49.1% | -0.02% |
| ENA | 13992 | 47.7% | -0.05% |
| HYPE | 13839 | 49.1% | -0.01% |
| PEPE | 11573 | 45.7% | 0.00% |
| WLD | 11338 | 48.5% | -0.02% |
| AAVE | 11207 | 49.1% | -0.01% |
| LINK | 10539 | 48.8% | -0.01% |
| DOGE | 10306 | 47.9% | -0.01% |
| BNB | 9944 | 47.9% | -0.01% |
| SUI | 9667 | 46.5% | -0.06% |
| UNI | 8670 | 47.3% | -0.05% |
| PUMP | 8554 | 47.3% | -0.06% |
| ADA | 7506 | 47.2% | -0.04% |
| XAUT | 7067 | 51.0% | 0.00% |
| TRX | 6842 | 46.9% | 0.00% |
Best and worst follow-through
Coins with 5+ spikes, by median +1h| Coin | Spikes | Hit rate +1h | Median +1h |
|---|---|---|---|
| QKC best | 6 | 83.3% | +4.01% |
| MBL best | 11 | 63.6% | +2.07% |
| INTW best | 9 | 66.7% | +1.84% |
| CETUS best | 18 | 55.6% | +1.31% |
| PUMPBTC best | 36 | 61.1% | +1.20% |
| QUICK worst | 5 | 20.0% | -11.50% |
| PAPER worst | 9 | 11.1% | -6.47% |
| KOR worst | 17 | 11.8% | -4.68% |
| XCN worst | 6 | 16.7% | -4.59% |
| FTT worst | 6 | 16.7% | -4.00% |
Spike outcomes by coin
394 coins with 50+ spikes with a 1-hour outcomeMethod
Detection. A volume spike is a market's 1-minute volume at least 4× its normal minute, on Binance, Bybit or Hyperliquid spot, perpetual and HIP-3 markets: the same spikes as the live Volume Monitor spike scanner and the Binance, Bybit and Hyperliquid pump scanners. Level 2 starts at 8× and level 3 at 16×; a spike confirmed on another exchange in the same direction moves up one level. The side is the taker flow of the spike minute: 60%+ taker buys is buy-side, 40% or less sell-side, anything between mixed.
Hit rate. For each buy- or sell-side spike, the follow-through at +5m, +15m and +1h is the change from the spike minute's close to the close that many minutes later, with the sign flipped for sell-side spikes. A spike is a hit when its follow-through is above zero (exactly zero is a miss). Hit rate = hits ÷ spikes measured at that horizon. Mixed spikes (141518 in this window) are left out of hit rates, medians and quartiles. A spike only counts at a horizon once that outcome was recorded.
Reading it. Every figure shows its sample size (n) and each table its date range; cells with fewer than 30 spikes are faded. These are descriptive statistics of past spikes, before fees, slippage and funding, from a price you could not have traded at. They are not a trading signal and make no claim of an edge. Not financial advice.
Spike outcome FAQ
What counts as a volume spike?
A market's 1-minute volume at least 4× its normal minute, on Binance, Bybit or Hyperliquid (spot, perpetuals and HIP-3 markets). The side comes from the taker flow in that minute: 60% or more taker buys is a buy-side spike, 40% or less a sell-side one, anything between is mixed. The live feed is the spike scanner, with per-exchange pump scanners for Binance, Bybit and Hyperliquid.
How is the hit rate calculated?
For each buy- or sell-side spike we record the close of the spike minute, then the close 5, 15 and 60 minutes later. The follow-through is the price change in the spike's direction: the change itself after a buy-side spike, and the change with its sign flipped after a sell-side one (a 1% drop is +1%). A spike is a hit at a horizon when its follow-through is above zero; the hit rate is hits divided by the spikes measured at that horizon. Mixed spikes have no direction, so they are left out of hit rates and medians.
Can I trade on these numbers?
No claim is made that you can. These are descriptive statistics of what happened after past spikes, before fees, slippage and funding, measured from the spike minute's close, which you could not have traded at. A hit rate near 50% means no follow-through either way. Nothing here is financial advice.
Why are some cells greyed out?
Cells with fewer than 30 spikes are small samples and can swing a lot from week to week. Spike history on this site starts on 27 September 2026, so early figures are provisional.
How often is this updated?
The tables are recomputed from the spike history at most every five minutes. Choose the last 7 days, the last 30 days or all history above the tables.