MSTR: what happens after a volume spike?
Every MSTR volume spike this site detects is followed up: the price 5 minutes, 15 minutes and 1 hour later is compared with the price at the spike. The tables count how often price kept going in the spike's direction (the hit rate) and how far, by exchange and by buy or sell side, with every figure's sample size. Past outcomes, not a forecast.
Across 1,454 buy- and sell-side MSTR volume spikes with a 1-hour outcome (14 Oct 2026 – 12 Nov 2026), price an hour later had moved in the spike's direction 50.5% of the time; the median follow-through was +0.01% (middle half -0.51% to +0.54%). After 15 minutes the hit rate was 49.5% over 1,460 spikes (median 0.00%). Buy-side spikes: 47.6% hit after 1 hour (n = 694); sell-side: 53.2% (n = 760).
All MSTR spikes · Last 30 days
1678 volume spikes, 14 Oct 2026 – 13 Nov 2026 (UTC)| After | Spikes measured | Hit rate | Lower quartile | Median | Upper quartile | Mean | Date range (UTC) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 min | 1460 | 49.2% | -0.16% | 0.00% | +0.17% | +0.02% | 14 Oct 2026 – 13 Nov 2026 |
| 15 min | 1460 | 49.5% | -0.28% | 0.00% | +0.28% | +0.02% | 14 Oct 2026 – 13 Nov 2026 |
| 1 hour | 1454 | 50.5% | -0.51% | +0.01% | +0.54% | +0.01% | 14 Oct 2026 – 12 Nov 2026 |
MSTR by exchange
14 Oct 2026 – 13 Nov 2026 (UTC)| +5m | +15m | +1h | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rate | Median | Hit rate | Median | Hit rate | Median | |
| Bybit | 49.8%n = 864 | 0.00%-0.15% … +0.15% | 49.3%n = 864 | 0.00%-0.27% … +0.26% | 49.5%n = 862 | -0.01%-0.49% … +0.51% |
| Hyperliquid HIP-3 | 48.5%n = 596 | -0.01%-0.19% … +0.21% | 49.7%n = 596 | 0.00%-0.30% … +0.33% | 51.9%n = 592 | +0.04%-0.61% … +0.61% |
MSTR by direction
14 Oct 2026 – 13 Nov 2026 (UTC)| +5m | +15m | +1h | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rate | Median | Hit rate | Median | Hit rate | Median | |
| Buy-side spikesa hit is price up | 48.1%n = 695 | -0.01%-0.17% … +0.16% | 45.8%n = 695 | -0.04%-0.31% … +0.25% | 47.6%n = 694 | -0.04%-0.60% … +0.49% |
| Sell-side spikesa hit is price down | 50.3%n = 765 | +0.01%-0.16% … +0.17% | 52.8%n = 765 | +0.02%-0.24% … +0.31% | 53.2%n = 760 | +0.06%-0.40% … +0.56% |
Last 20 MSTR volume spikes
All history, newest first · price change after each spike| Day (UTC) | Time | Market | Side | Level | × normal | $ in 1m | +5m | +15m | +1h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov 2026 | 01:34 UTC | HL perptrade.xyz | SELL | 3 | 23.6× | $105K | -0.24% | -0.38% | — |
| 13 Nov 2026 | 01:20 UTC | HL perptrade.xyz | BUY | 3 | 30.2× | $106K | +0.10% | +0.14% | — |
| 13 Nov 2026 | 01:12 UTC | HL perptrade.xyz | SELL | 3 | 29.4× | $102K | +0.39% | +0.67% | — |
| 13 Nov 2026 | 00:56 UTC | HL perptrade.xyz | SELL | 3 | 53.7× | $186K | +0.01% | -0.02% | — |
| 13 Nov 2026 | 00:42 UTC | BYB perp | SELL | 3 | 23.1× | $125K | +0.40% | +0.79% | +0.64% |
| 13 Nov 2026 | 00:37 UTC | HL perptrade.xyz | SELL | 3 | 22.0× | $75K | -0.32% | +0.12% | +0.64% |
| 13 Nov 2026 | 00:37 UTC | BYB perp | SELL | 3 | 45.3× | $222K | -0.33% | +0.11% | +0.77% |
| 12 Nov 2026 | 23:33 UTC | HL perptrade.xyz | SELL | 3 | 68.1× | $250K | +0.04% | +0.27% | -0.06% |
| 12 Nov 2026 | 22:25 UTC | BYB perp | SELL | 3 | 26.6× | $116K | +0.06% | +0.07% | -0.35% |
| 12 Nov 2026 | 22:11 UTC | HL perptrade.xyz | BUY | 3 | 54.2× | $246K | -0.22% | -0.22% | +0.05% |
| 12 Nov 2026 | 21:01 UTC | HL perptrade.xyz | MIX | 3 | 48.5× | $271K | -0.17% | -0.20% | -0.17% |
| 12 Nov 2026 | 21:01 UTC | BYB perp | SELL | 3 | 43.3× | $206K | -0.16% | -0.14% | -0.11% |
| 12 Nov 2026 | 20:56 UTC | BYB perp | SELL | 3 | 17.6× | $84K | -0.23% | -0.63% | -0.17% |
| 12 Nov 2026 | 20:53 UTC | HL perptrade.xyz | SELL | 3 | 49.4× | $271K | -0.86% | -1.31% | -0.89% |
| 12 Nov 2026 | 19:43 UTC | HL perptrade.xyz | SELL | 3 | 18.7× | $103K | +0.17% | +0.17% | -0.05% |
| 12 Nov 2026 | 19:16 UTC | HL perptrade.xyz | BUY | 3 | 16.1× | $89K | +0.10% | -0.20% | -0.73% |
| 12 Nov 2026 | 19:09 UTC | HL perptrade.xyz | BUY | 3 | 21.3× | $117K | +0.04% | +0.16% | -0.50% |
| 12 Nov 2026 | 19:04 UTC | HL perptrade.xyz | SELL | 3 | 27.1× | $148K | +0.10% | +0.19% | -0.20% |
| 12 Nov 2026 | 17:12 UTC | HL perptrade.xyz | SELL | 2 | 11.1× | $93K | -0.24% | -0.02% | -0.34% |
| 12 Nov 2026 | 16:47 UTC | HL perptrade.xyz | BUY | 2 | 13.0× | $152K | +0.25% | -0.09% | -0.81% |
+5m / +15m / +1h: the raw price change after each spike (not signed by side), — until that outcome is recorded. Each day links to that day's spike archive page. Live MSTR price, funding and open interest: MSTR overview.
Method
Counting. The same volume spikes as the live Volume Monitor spike scanner, for markets whose base asset is MSTR. For each buy- or sell-side spike, the follow-through at +5m, +15m and +1h is the change from the spike minute's close to the close that many minutes later, with the sign flipped for sell-side spikes; a hit is a follow-through above zero. Mixed spikes (217 in this window) are left out of hit rates, medians and quartiles. HIP-3 markets (Hyperliquid builder perps such as stock tickers) are shown apart from Hyperliquid's own perps, since a HIP-3 ticker can share a name with an unrelated coin.
Reading it. Every figure shows its sample size (n) and each table its date range; cells with fewer than 30 spikes are faded. This page is only indexed once MSTR has 50 or more spikes with a 1-hour outcome in the last 30 days. These are descriptive statistics of past spikes, before fees, slippage and funding, from a price you could not have traded at. They are not a trading signal and make no claim of an edge. Not financial advice. Compare with spike outcomes for all coins.
MSTR spike outcome FAQ
How is the hit rate calculated?
For each buy- or sell-side MSTR volume spike we compare the close of the spike minute with the close 5, 15 and 60 minutes later. A buy-side spike is a hit when price went up, a sell-side spike when it went down (exactly unchanged is a miss). Mixed spikes, with no clear taker side, are left out of hit rates, medians and quartiles. The method is the same as on spike outcomes for all coins.
Can I trade on these numbers?
No claim is made that you can. These describe what happened after past spikes, before fees, slippage and funding, measured from a price you could not have traded at. Small samples swing a lot. Nothing here is financial advice.