Bitcoin (BTC) implied volatility
Implied volatility of BTC options on Bybit and Binance: the IV smile for each expiry, the ATM term structure, the 30-day 25-delta risk reversal (skew) and how 30-day implied vol compares with 30-day realized vol. Recorded from the exchanges' public APIs every 5 minutes.
BTC 30-day implied vol is 39.9%, 1.5 points above 30-day realized (38.4%); puts trade at a 4.1-vol premium to calls. The ATM term structure is flat: 40.4% for 15 Nov 2026 and 40.6% for 24 Sep 2027. 30-day ATM IV is 2.7 points higher than 7 days ago. Mark IV from Bybit and Binance options only, not the whole market.
Compare BTC 7/30/90-day IV with its one-year realized-volatility cone: current RV and historical percentile bands at matching horizons.
Compare BTC IV across expiries and delta wings in the observed single-venue matrix.
BTC IV smile, 17 Nov 2026 expiry
mark IV by strike · bid/ask IV as a bandThis expiry on: max pain · chain · delta OI
- Bybit mark IV
No recorded smile for this expiry 24h ago or 7d ago (listed later, or before the hourly history starts), so those curves are left out.
Every strike (22)
| Strike | OTM side | Bybit mark IV | Bybit Bid / ask IV | Bybit Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61,000 | put | 64.1% | -0.05 | |
| 62,000 | put | 59.7% | -0.08 | |
| 63,000 | put | 55.4% | -0.11 | |
| 64,000 | put | 51.3% | -0.16 | |
| 65,000 | put | 47.4% | -0.24 | |
| 65,500 | put | 45.6% | -0.29 | |
| 66,000 | put | 44.0% | -0.35 | |
| 66,500 | put | 42.6% | -0.42 | |
| 66,750 | put | 42.1% | -0.45 | |
| 67,000 | put | 41.5% | -0.49 | |
| 67,250 | call | 41.2% | +0.47 | |
| 67,500 | call | 41.0% | +0.43 | |
| 67,750 | call | 40.8% | +0.39 | |
| 68,000 | call | 40.7% | +0.36 | |
| 68,500 | call | 40.9% | +0.29 | |
| 69,000 | call | 41.4% | +0.23 | |
| 69,500 | call | 42.2% | +0.18 | |
| 70,500 | call | 44.3% | +0.11 | |
| 71,000 | call | 45.5% | +0.09 | |
| 72,000 | call | 48.2% | +0.06 | |
| 73,000 | call | 51.0% | +0.04 | |
| 74,000 | call | 53.9% | +0.03 |
ATM IV and RR25, 17 Nov 2026 expiry (hourly)
Bybit and Binance combined · RR25 in vol points · gaps are unrecorded hoursCollecting history for this expiry: the chart starts once two hourly snapshots are recorded.
BTC ATM IV term structure
at-the-money mark IV by days to expiry- Bybit
- Binance
- Combined
| Expiry (08:00 UTC) | Days | ATM IV | 25Δ put IV | 25Δ call IV | RR25 | 25Δ fly | Venues |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Nov 2026 | 0.2 | 48.3% | 57.0% | 51.9% | −5.1 | +6.1 | Binance, Bybit |
| 15 Nov 2026 | 1.2 | 40.4% | 45.5% | 40.6% | −4.9 | +2.6 | Binance, Bybit |
| 16 Nov 2026 | 2.2 | 40.7% | 46.0% | 40.2% | −5.8 | +2.4 | Binance, Bybit |
| 17 Nov 2026 | 3.2 | 41.5% | 47.0% | 41.2% | −5.8 | +2.6 | Bybit |
| 20 Nov 2026 | 6.2 | 43.4% | 47.1% | 42.8% | −4.3 | +1.5 | Binance, Bybit |
| 27 Nov 2026 | 13 | 39.8% | 43.2% | 38.9% | −4.3 | +1.2 | Binance, Bybit |
| 4 Dec 2026 | 20 | 40.2% | 43.0% | 38.7% | −4.3 | +0.7 | Binance, Bybit |
| 25 Dec 2026 | 41 | 39.7% | 42.8% | 38.7% | −4.0 | +1.1 | Binance, Bybit |
| 29 Jan 2027 | 76 | 39.6% | 42.6% | 38.7% | −3.9 | +1.0 | Binance, Bybit |
| 26 Mar 2027 | 132 | 40.4% | 43.1% | 39.6% | −3.5 | +1.0 | Binance, Bybit |
| 25 Jun 2027 | 223 | 40.8% | 42.8% | 40.4% | −2.4 | +0.8 | Binance, Bybit |
| 24 Sep 2027 | 314 | 40.6% | 41.4% | 41.0% | −0.4 | +0.6 | Binance, Bybit |
BTC forward ATM volatility
adjacent expiries · nearest 20 pairs per venue · annualized IVEach interval uses the same venue's ATM inputs: √((IV₂² × T₂ − IV₁² × T₁) / (T₂ − T₁)), with IVs as decimals and times in years. Interpolated ATM curves at different forwards are a model reference, not a forecast, executable quote or tradable calendar spread.
| Venue | First expiry (UTC) | Next expiry (UTC) | Days between | First ATM IV | Next ATM IV | Forward IV (annualized) | Availability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bybit | 2026-11-14 | 2026-11-15 | 1.0 | 43.0% | 41.0% | 40.6% | — |
| Bybit | 2026-11-15 | 2026-11-16 | 1.0 | 41.0% | 40.8% | 40.5% | — |
| Bybit | 2026-11-16 | 2026-11-17 | 1.0 | 40.8% | 41.5% | 43.0% | — |
| Bybit | 2026-11-17 | 2026-11-20 | 3.0 | 41.5% | 43.6% | 45.8% | — |
| Bybit | 2026-11-20 | 2026-11-27 | 7.0 | 43.6% | 40.0% | 36.5% | — |
| Bybit | 2026-11-27 | 2026-12-04 | 7.0 | 40.0% | 40.1% | 40.4% | — |
| Bybit | 2026-12-04 | 2026-12-25 | 21.0 | 40.1% | 39.7% | 39.3% | — |
| Bybit | 2026-12-25 | 2027-01-29 | 35.0 | 39.7% | 39.6% | 39.6% | — |
| Bybit | 2027-01-29 | 2027-03-26 | 56.0 | 39.6% | 40.4% | 41.4% | — |
| Bybit | 2027-03-26 | 2027-06-25 | 91.0 | 40.4% | 40.9% | 41.7% | — |
| Bybit | 2027-06-25 | 2027-09-24 | 91.0 | 40.9% | 40.6% | 39.7% | — |
| Binance | 2026-11-14 | 2026-11-15 | 1.0 | 53.6% | 39.9% | 36.9% | — |
| Binance | 2026-11-15 | 2026-11-16 | 1.0 | 39.9% | 40.7% | 41.5% | — |
| Binance | 2026-11-16 | 2026-11-20 | 4.0 | 40.7% | 43.2% | 44.5% | — |
| Binance | 2026-11-20 | 2026-11-27 | 7.0 | 43.2% | 39.7% | 36.3% | — |
| Binance | 2026-11-27 | 2026-12-04 | 7.0 | 39.7% | 39.7% | 39.9% | — |
| Binance | 2026-12-04 | 2026-12-25 | 21.0 | 39.7% | 39.7% | 39.6% | — |
| Binance | 2026-12-25 | 2027-01-29 | 35.0 | 39.7% | 39.6% | 39.5% | — |
| Binance | 2027-01-29 | 2027-03-26 | 56.0 | 39.6% | 40.4% | 41.4% | — |
| Binance | 2027-03-26 | 2027-06-25 | 91.0 | 40.4% | 40.7% | 41.1% | — |
| Binance | 2027-06-25 | 2027-09-24 | 91.0 | 40.7% | 40.6% | 40.4% | — |
BTC ATM term structure now vs 24h, 7d and 30d ago
each curve by days to expiry at its own hour- Now
- 24h ago (13 Nov 03:00 UTC)
- 7d ago (7 Nov 03:00 UTC)
- 30d ago (15 Oct 03:00 UTC)
| Curve | Hour (UTC) | 7-day ATM IV | 30-day ATM IV | 90-day ATM IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 14 Nov 03:41 | 42.6% | 39.9% | 39.9% |
| 24h ago | 13 Nov 03:00 | 38.8% (+3.8) | 37.8% (+2.1) | 38.6% (+1.3) |
| 7d ago | 7 Nov 03:00 | 36.9% (+5.8) | 37.2% (+2.7) | 38.4% (+1.5) |
| 30d ago | 15 Oct 03:00 | 34.5% (+8.2) | 36.3% (+3.5) | 38.0% (+1.9) |
ATM IV interpolated in total variance between the expiries either side of each tenor, at each curve's own hour; brackets give now minus that curve in vol points. Expiries under 1 day are left out.
30-day ATM implied volatility
constant maturity, interpolated between expiries in total variance- 30-day ATM IV
1072 hourly samples, 2026-09-29 09:00 to 2026-11-14 03:00 UTC; the chart draws 216 of them. Unrecorded hours are not counted. Low and high cover every sample in that range.
| Series | First | Latest | Low | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-day ATM IV annualized % | 34.7% | 38.9% | 33.4% | 40.3% |
30-day 25-delta risk reversal
vol points · negative = puts bidRR25 is the 25-delta call's implied vol minus the 25-delta put's: below zero traders pay up for downside protection, above zero for upside.
- 30-day RR25
1072 hourly samples, 2026-09-29 09:00 to 2026-11-14 03:00 UTC; the chart draws 216 of them. Unrecorded hours are not counted. Low and high cover every sample in that range.
| Series | First | Latest | Low | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-day RR25 vol points | +0.1 | −4.0 | −6.1 | +0.3 |
30-day implied vs realized volatility
IV − RV now: +1.5 vol points- 30-day ATM IV
- 30-day realized vol
- IV − RV
46 UTC days, 2026-09-29 to 2026-11-14: each day's last hourly 30-day ATM IV against the prior completed day's 30-day realized vol; days missing either are left out. Low and high cover every day in that range.
| Series | First | Latest | Low | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-day ATM IV annualized % | 34.0% | 38.9% | 33.5% | 40.3% |
| 30-day realized vol annualized % | 41.5% | 38.4% | 23.2% | 41.5% |
| IV − RV vol points | −7.5 | +0.5 | −7.7 | +14.2 |
How to read it. Mark IV is the implied volatility behind each exchange's option mark price. The smile uses the out-of-the-money option at each strike (puts below the forward, calls above); on the delta axis 0.25 is the 25-delta put, 0.5 at the money and 0.75 the 25-delta call. ATM IV is interpolated at the forward. The 25Δ butterfly (fly) is the average of the 25-delta call and put IVs minus ATM IV, in vol points: the higher it is, the more the wings cost relative to the money (a more curved smile). The 30-day figures interpolate between the expiries either side of 30 days. Realized vol is the 30-day standard deviation of daily log returns of the Binance USDT perp, annualized with √365, as on the volatility screener. More in the implied volatility guide.
Bybit and Binance options only, recorded from their public APIs every 5 minutes; not the whole crypto options market. Not financial advice.
Bitcoin implied volatility FAQ
What is Bitcoin implied volatility?
Implied volatility (IV) is the annualized volatility that makes an option's model price match its market price. It is the market's price for future movement, not a forecast. On this page it is each exchange's mark IV, the volatility behind its mark price.
What is 25-delta skew (the risk reversal)?
The 25-delta risk reversal (RR25) is the implied vol of the 25-delta call minus that of the 25-delta put. Negative means puts are bid: traders pay more for downside protection than for upside. Put skew is the same number with the opposite sign. The 30-day series interpolates between listed expiries in total variance.
Why is implied volatility different from realized volatility?
Realized vol measures how much the price actually moved (here the 30-day standard deviation of daily log returns, annualized with √365, as on the volatility screener). Implied vol is what options charge for the next 30 days. IV above RV means options are rich relative to recent moves; below means they are cheap. Nothing here is financial advice.
Which exchanges are covered?
Bybit and Binance options only, from their public market-data APIs, recorded every 5 minutes. That is not the whole crypto options market, so these IVs can differ from volatility indices built on other venues.