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XPL Whale vs Retail Delta

The XPL whale vs retail delta: the share of top traders' XPL position that is long minus the share of all accounts that are long, in percentage points. The chart runs back to 2020 on Binance and 2023 on Gate. Below it: where today's reading ranks in the past 30 days and year, and what price did after the year's most extreme readings.

XPL whales are 21.7 pp more long than retail, the 20th percentile of the past year (Binance top traders' positions 76.1% long vs 54.4% of all accounts). The delta is up 8.2 pp in 24 hours, at the 11th percentile of the past 30 days. In the past year it ranged from -13.1 pp (2 Apr 2026) to +42.3 pp (18 May 2026). After the top 5% of hourly readings (above +39.1 pp), XPL was higher 7 days later 46% of the time, median -1.6%, over 438 readings on 37 days. That describes the past and is not a trading signal.

Binance top traders vs all accounts8,760 hourly readings in the past yearAs of 14:00 UTC

XPL whale vs retail Binance
+21.7 pp
top traders 76.1% longaccounts 54.4%
Percentile
20th of 1y
11th of the past 30 days24h change +8.2 pp
1-year range
-13.1 to +42.3
low 2 Apr 2026high 18 May 2026
Other exchange
-7.4 pp on Gate
same measure, Gate's own traders

XPL top traders vs all accounts

Top trader positions long minus accounts long, pp

Chart: TradingView Lightweight Charts™

What XPL did after extreme readings

8760 hourly readings in the past year
Readings Hours (days) 24h median 24h hit rate 7d median 7d hit rate
Top 5%: whales most long vs retail 438 (37) +0.1% n=438 52% -1.6% n=438 46%
Bottom 5%: whales least long vs retail 438 (25) +0.7% n=424 50% +5.1% n=387 35%

Top 5%: readings of +39.1 pp or more; bottom 5%: +13.3 pp or less. A hit is a rise after the top 5% (whales leaned long) and a fall after the bottom 5%. For comparison, across every hourly reading XPL was higher 24 hours later 45% of the time (median -0.7%, n=8721) and 7 days later 39% (median -5.3%). Prices: Binance spot XPL/USDT, hourly closes where this site recorded them, else daily closes. Readings cluster in episodes, so the samples overlap and are smaller than they look. This describes the past; it is not a trading signal and not financial advice.

How to read it. The delta is the share of top traders' XPL position that is long minus the share of all accounts that are long, in percentage points. Retail accounts usually lean long, so the delta sits below zero much of the time; what matters is where it stands against its own history. The chart shows Binance and Gate separately. Compare every coin on the whale vs retail hub and the long/short ratio page.

XPL whale vs retail FAQ

What is the XPL whale vs retail delta?

The share of XPL's top traders' combined position that is long, minus the share of all accounts with a XPL position that are long, in percentage points. Top traders are Binance's top 20% of futures users by margin balance, weighted by position size; the accounts ratio counts every account once.

How is the "after extremes" table built?

We take the hourly readings of the past year, keep the highest 5% and the lowest 5%, and compare XPL's Binance spot price at each reading with the price 24 hours and 7 days later: from hourly closes where this site has them, else from daily closes. The hit rate is how often price moved the way the whales leaned (up after the top 5%, down after the bottom 5%). Readings bunch together in episodes, so the number of distinct days is shown too.

Is it a trading signal?

No. The table describes what happened after past readings, before fees and funding, and a year holds only a handful of episodes. Nothing here is financial advice.