Volume spike hit rates: Week 40, 2026 (28 Sep – 4 Oct 2026)
One report per ISO week (Monday to Sunday, UTC) of the volume spikes this site detected on Binance, Bybit and Hyperliquid: how often price kept going in the spike's direction 5, 15 and 60 minutes later (the hit rate), which coins followed through best and worst, the week's biggest spikes and how it compares with the week before. Past outcomes, not a forecast.
In week 40, 2026 (28 Sep – 4 Oct 2026), the hit rate of buy- and sell-side volume spikes was 45.5% after 5 min, 45.7% after 15 min and 47.5% after 1 hour (up to 108,468 spikes measured). 132,261 volume spikes, 1479% more than week 39 (8,374). The 1-hour hit rate was 47.5%, against 48.6% in week 39 (down 1.1 points).
Week 40, 2026 vs the week before
28 Sep – 4 Oct 2026 (UTC)| After | Hit rate | Week before | Change | Median | Week before |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 min | 45.5%n = 108468 | 46.1%n = 6920 | -0.5 pts | -0.01% | -0.01% |
| 15 min | 45.7%n = 108468 | 45.8%n = 6920 | 0.0 pts | -0.02% | -0.02% |
| 1 hour | 47.5%n = 108468 | 48.6%n = 6920 | -1.1 pts | -0.03% | -0.01% |
132,261 volume spikes, 1479% more than week 39 (8,374). The 1-hour hit rate was 47.5%, against 48.6% in week 39 (down 1.1 points).
The week's biggest spikes
By size vs normal minute volume · times UTC| When | Market | Side | × normal | +5m | +15m | +1h | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 29 Sep 12:11 | COINB spot · Binance | sell | 7322.8× | +0.07% | -0.58% | -0.01% | hit |
| Sat 3 Oct 00:01 | KNC perp · Binance | mixed | 5318.3× | -0.42% | -0.70% | -0.49% | — |
| Fri 2 Oct 00:01 | CKB perp · Binance | mixed | 4922.0× | +0.24% | +0.49% | -4.28% | — |
| Mon 28 Sep 13:01 | LLY xyz:LLY HIP-3 · Hyperliquid | sell | 4204.1× | +0.16% | +0.49% | +0.47% | miss |
| Sun 4 Oct 17:03 | FF spot · Binance | buy | 3865.5× | -0.75% | -0.58% | -2.63% | miss |
Best and worst follow-through
Coins with 5+ spikes this week, by median +1hCoins with the most spikes
Top 20 of 699Method
Week. ISO week 2026-W40: Monday 00:00 to Sunday 24:00 UTC (28 Sep – 4 Oct 2026).
Hit rate. The same definitions as spike outcomes: for each buy- or sell-side volume spike, the follow-through at +5m, +15m and +1h is the change from the spike minute's close, with the sign flipped for sell-side spikes. A hit is a follow-through above zero. Mixed spikes (23792 this week) are left out of hit rates and medians. Cells with fewer than 30 spikes are faded. Weeks with fewer than 300 spikes with a 1-hour outcome are kept but not indexed.
Reading it. Descriptive statistics of past spikes, before fees, slippage and funding, from a price you could not have traded at. Not a trading signal and not financial advice.
Weekly spike report FAQ
Which days does a week cover?
ISO weeks in UTC: Monday 00:00 to Sunday 24:00. Week 1 is the week with the year's first Thursday, so a week around New Year can carry the other year's number. The current week's page fills in as spikes happen and says so far; past weeks are final once their last 1-hour outcomes are in.
How is the hit rate calculated?
For each buy- or sell-side volume spike we compare the close of the spike minute with the close 5, 15 and 60 minutes later. A buy-side spike is a hit when price went up, a sell-side spike when it went down (exactly unchanged is a miss). Mixed spikes are left out. The method is the same as on spike outcomes.
Can I trade on these numbers?
No claim is made that you can. These describe what happened after past spikes, before fees, slippage and funding, measured from a price you could not have traded at. A hit rate near 50% means no follow-through either way. Nothing here is financial advice.