Volume Spike Hit Rates This Week (2026-W39)

Volume spike hit rates this week, so far: Week 39, 2026

One report per ISO week (Monday to Sunday, UTC) of the volume spikes this site detected on Binance, Bybit and Hyperliquid: how often price kept going in the spike's direction 5, 15 and 60 minutes later (the hit rate), which coins followed through best and worst, the week's biggest spikes and how it compares with the week before. Past outcomes, not a forecast.

In week 39, 2026 (21–27 Sep 2026) so far, the hit rate of buy- and sell-side volume spikes was 45.3% after 5 min, 45.9% after 15 min and 48.8% after 1 hour (up to 4,695 spikes measured). This is the first week of stored spike history, so there is no earlier week to compare with.

2026-W39 · 21–27 Sep 2026 (UTC)so far: updates every 5 minutes5,737 volume spikesDescriptive stats, not a signalAs of 20:56 UTC

Hit rate +5m

45.3%

n = 4695

Hit rate +15m

45.9%

n = 4605

Hit rate +1h

48.8%

n = 4116

Volume spikes so far

5737

985 mixed (no side)

Week 39, 2026 so far vs the week before

21–27 Sep 2026 (UTC)

After	Hit rate	Week before	Change	Median	Week before
5 min	45.3%n = 4695	—n = 0	—	-0.01%	—
15 min	45.9%n = 4605	—n = 0	—	-0.02%	—
1 hour	48.8%n = 4116	—n = 0	—	-0.01%	—

This is the first week of stored spike history, so there is no earlier week to compare with.

The week's biggest spikes so far

By size vs normal minute volume · times UTC

When	Market	Side	× normal	+5m	+15m	+1h	Outcome
Sun 27 Sep 15:23	ETHFI spot · Binance	buy	2275.5×	-0.14%	0.00%	+0.03%	hit
Sun 27 Sep 18:13	MORPHO perp · Hyperliquid	buy	1646.8×	+0.62%	+0.66%	-0.23%	miss
Sun 27 Sep 13:49	MAGIC spot · Binance	mixed	1643.2×	+1.29%	+2.22%	+7.21%	—
Sun 27 Sep 17:15	XAG perp · Bybit	sell	1367.5×	-0.02%	0.00%	-0.02%	hit
Sun 27 Sep 15:31	JUV spot · Binance	mixed	1364.8×	-4.42%	-9.87%	-14.55%	—

Best and worst follow-through

Coins with 5+ spikes this week, by median +1h

Coin	Spikes	Hit rate +1h	Median +1h
AZTEC best	6	66.7%	+3.24%
QNT best	25	76.0%	+2.31%
龙虾 best	9	77.8%	+2.17%
ZIG best	7	71.4%	+2.08%
AUDIO best	5	60.0%	+1.93%
Q worst	13	38.5%	-3.67%
BULLA worst	13	30.8%	-2.42%
APE worst	6	16.7%	-1.98%
INX worst	7	14.3%	-1.63%
CASHCAT worst	6	33.3%	-1.22%

Coins with the most spikes

Top 20 of 285

Coin	Spikes	Hit rate +1h	Median +1h
XRP	144	53.5%	+0.11%
ETH	125	53.6%	+0.02%
BTC	120	50.8%	+0.00%
SOL	119	50.4%	+0.07%
NEAR	105	49.5%	0.00%
HYPE	100	51.0%	+0.03%
ENA	98	45.9%	-0.33%
DOGE	96	42.7%	-0.10%
ZEC	94	62.8%	+0.44%
SUI	90	56.7%	+0.14%

Method

Week. ISO week 2026-W39: Monday 00:00 to Sunday 24:00 UTC (21–27 Sep 2026). This week is still running, so every figure is so far and the comparison is with the whole of the week before.

Hit rate. The same definitions as spike outcomes: for each buy- or sell-side volume spike, the follow-through at +5m, +15m and +1h is the change from the spike minute's close, with the sign flipped for sell-side spikes. A hit is a follow-through above zero. Mixed spikes (985 this week) are left out of hit rates and medians. Cells with fewer than 30 spikes are faded. Weeks with fewer than 300 spikes with a 1-hour outcome are kept but not indexed.

Reading it. Descriptive statistics of past spikes, before fees, slippage and funding, from a price you could not have traded at. Not a trading signal and not financial advice.

Weekly spike report FAQ

Which days does a week cover?

ISO weeks in UTC: Monday 00:00 to Sunday 24:00. Week 1 is the week with the year's first Thursday, so a week around New Year can carry the other year's number. The current week's page fills in as spikes happen and says so far; past weeks are final once their last 1-hour outcomes are in.

How is the hit rate calculated?

For each buy- or sell-side volume spike we compare the close of the spike minute with the close 5, 15 and 60 minutes later. A buy-side spike is a hit when price went up, a sell-side spike when it went down (exactly unchanged is a miss). Mixed spikes are left out. The method is the same as on spike outcomes.

Can I trade on these numbers?

No claim is made that you can. These describe what happened after past spikes, before fees, slippage and funding, measured from a price you could not have traded at. A hit rate near 50% means no follow-through either way. Nothing here is financial advice.