Volume spike hit rates: Week 39, 2026 (21–27 Sep 2026)
One report per ISO week (Monday to Sunday, UTC) of the volume spikes this site detected on Binance, Bybit and Hyperliquid: how often price kept going in the spike's direction 5, 15 and 60 minutes later (the hit rate), which coins followed through best and worst, the week's biggest spikes and how it compares with the week before. Past outcomes, not a forecast.
In week 39, 2026 (21–27 Sep 2026), the hit rate of buy- and sell-side volume spikes was 46.1% after 5 min, 45.8% after 15 min and 48.6% after 1 hour (up to 6,920 spikes measured). This is the first week of stored spike history, so there is no earlier week to compare with.
Download summary CSV · Breakdowns: exchange CSV · level CSV · direction CSV · market segment CSV
Week 39, 2026 vs the week before
21–27 Sep 2026 (UTC)| After | Hit rate | Week before | Change | Median | Week before |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 min | 46.1%n = 6920 | —n = 0 | — | -0.01% | — |
| 15 min | 45.8%n = 6920 | —n = 0 | — | -0.02% | — |
| 1 hour | 48.6%n = 6920 | —n = 0 | — | -0.01% | — |
| After | Hits / measured | Misses | Non-directional excluded | Directional without outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 min | 3187 / 6920 | 3733 | 1454 | 0 |
| 15 min | 3169 / 6920 | 3751 | 1454 | 0 |
| 1 hour | 3362 / 6920 | 3558 | 1454 | 0 |
Hit rate = hits / measured directional spikes; no measured sample means unavailable (—). Measured = hits + misses. Total = measured + non-directional excluded + directional without outcome. Zero signed movement counts as a miss. Mixed/non-directional spikes are excluded. Absent outcomes can mean missing measurements as well as pending outcomes; even for a completed week, missing outcomes may never arrive.
This is the first week of stored spike history, so there is no earlier week to compare with.
The week's biggest spikes
By size vs normal minute volume · times UTC · Download CSV| When | Market | Side | × normal | +5m | +15m | +1h | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 27 Sep 15:23 | ETHFI spot · Binance | buy | 2275.5× | -0.14% | 0.00% | +0.03% | hit |
| Sun 27 Sep 21:38 | WOO perp · Binance | buy | 2255.8× | +0.92% | +0.42% | -1.13% | miss |
| Sun 27 Sep 18:13 | MORPHO perp · Hyperliquid | buy | 1646.8× | +0.62% | +0.66% | -0.23% | miss |
| Sun 27 Sep 13:49 | MAGIC spot · Binance | mixed | 1643.2× | +1.29% | +2.22% | +7.21% | — |
| Sun 27 Sep 17:15 | XAG perp · Bybit | sell | 1367.5× | -0.02% | 0.00% | -0.02% | hit |
Best and worst follow-through
Coins with 5+ spikes this week, by median +1h| Coin | Spikes | Hit rate +1h | Median +1h |
|---|---|---|---|
| QNT best | 52 | 75.0% | +3.01% |
| YB best | 8 | 75.0% | +1.91% |
| ZIG best | 8 | 75.0% | +1.67% |
| 龙虾 best | 15 | 66.7% | +1.25% |
| ARX best | 25 | 56.0% | +0.95% |
| Q worst | 16 | 37.5% | -3.43% |
| BULLA worst | 14 | 28.6% | -2.29% |
| IMX worst | 5 | 40.0% | -2.08% |
| AUDIO worst | 7 | 42.9% | -1.33% |
| INX worst | 10 | 20.0% | -0.95% |
Coins with the most spikes
Top 20 of 335| Coin | Spikes | Hit rate +1h | Median +1h |
|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 243 | 56.8% | +0.13% |
| ETH | 226 | 52.7% | +0.02% |
| SOL | 214 | 48.1% | -0.01% |
| BTC | 203 | 51.7% | +0.01% |
| DOGE | 161 | 47.2% | -0.04% |
| HYPE | 160 | 50.0% | +0.01% |
| ZEC | 154 | 61.0% | +0.20% |
| NEAR | 153 | 53.6% | +0.17% |
| ENA | 152 | 46.7% | -0.24% |
| SUI | 151 | 49.0% | -0.01% |
Method
Week. ISO week 2026-W39: Monday 00:00 to Sunday 24:00 UTC (21–27 Sep 2026).
Hit rate. The same definitions as spike outcomes: for each buy- or sell-side volume spike, the follow-through at +5m, +15m and +1h is the change from the spike minute's close, with the sign flipped for sell-side spikes. A hit is a follow-through above zero. Mixed spikes (1454 this week) are left out of hit rates and medians. Cells with fewer than 30 spikes are faded. Weeks with fewer than 300 spikes with a 1-hour outcome are kept but not indexed.
Reading it. Descriptive statistics of past spikes, before fees, slippage and funding, from a price you could not have traded at. Not a trading signal and not financial advice.
Cite this report
Swolecharts, "Recorded volume spike outcomes, 2026-W39 (21–27 Sep 2026 UTC)", 12 Nov 2026 (UTC), https://swolecharts.com/spike-stats/week/2026-W39
Source: Swolecharts recorded scanner alerts on Binance, Bybit and Hyperliquid. Original report extraction/build: 2026-11-12T13:46:32Z; original data cutoff: 2026-09-27T23:59:59Z. Build status: current selected build. This dated permalink is stable, but its data may be rebuilt; it is not an immutable publication.
Weekly spike report FAQ
Which days does a week cover?
ISO weeks in UTC: Monday 00:00 to Sunday 24:00. Week 1 is the week with the year's first Thursday, so a week around New Year can carry the other year's number. The current week's page fills in as spikes happen and says so far; past weeks are final once their last 1-hour outcomes are in.
How is the hit rate calculated?
For each buy- or sell-side volume spike we compare the close of the spike minute with the close 5, 15 and 60 minutes later. A buy-side spike is a hit when price went up, a sell-side spike when it went down (exactly unchanged is a miss). Mixed spikes are left out. The method is the same as on spike outcomes.
Can I trade on these numbers?
No claim is made that you can. These describe what happened after past spikes, before fees, slippage and funding, measured from a price you could not have traded at. A hit rate near 50% means no follow-through either way. Nothing here is financial advice.