Volume spike hit rates this week, so far: Week 41, 2026
One report per ISO week (Monday to Sunday, UTC) of the volume spikes this site detected on Binance, Bybit and Hyperliquid: how often price kept going in the spike's direction 5, 15 and 60 minutes later (the hit rate), which coins followed through best and worst, the week's biggest spikes and how it compares with the week before. Past outcomes, not a forecast.
In week 41, 2026 (5–11 Oct 2026) so far, the hit rate of buy- and sell-side volume spikes was 45.8% after 5 min, 44.0% after 15 min and 45.4% after 1 hour (up to 2,425 spikes measured). 3,074 volume spikes so far this week, against 132,261 in the whole of week 40. The 1-hour hit rate is 45.4% so far, against 47.5% in week 40 (down 2.0 points).
Week 41, 2026 so far vs the week before
5–11 Oct 2026 (UTC)| After | Hit rate | Week before | Change | Median | Week before |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 min | 45.8%n = 2425 | 45.5%n = 108468 | +0.3 pts | -0.01% | -0.01% |
| 15 min | 44.0%n = 2362 | 45.7%n = 108468 | -1.7 pts | -0.04% | -0.02% |
| 1 hour | 45.4%n = 1831 | 47.5%n = 108468 | -2.0 pts | -0.05% | -0.03% |
3,074 volume spikes so far this week, against 132,261 in the whole of week 40. The 1-hour hit rate is 45.4% so far, against 47.5% in week 40 (down 2.0 points).
The week's biggest spikes so far
By size vs normal minute volume · times UTC| When | Market | Side | × normal | +5m | +15m | +1h | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 5 Oct 00:01 | EWZ xyz:EWZ HIP-3 · Hyperliquid | sell | 8104.8× | +0.45% | +0.45% | +0.45% | miss |
| Mon 5 Oct 02:05 | MCD perp · Bybit | mixed | 3237.4× | 0.00% | +0.06% | -0.14% | — |
| Mon 5 Oct 02:21 | XOM perp · Bybit | mixed | 2805.6× | +0.31% | +0.18% | -0.17% | — |
| Mon 5 Oct 00:01 | SKHYB spot · Binance | buy | 2350.4× | -0.11% | -0.05% | +0.01% | hit |
| Mon 5 Oct 00:01 | SAFE spot · Bybit | buy | 2082.6× | -1.71% | +1.27% | -1.68% | miss |
Best and worst follow-through
Coins with 5+ spikes this week, by median +1hCoins with the most spikes
Top 20 of 214Method
Week. ISO week 2026-W41: Monday 00:00 to Sunday 24:00 UTC (5–11 Oct 2026). This week is still running, so every figure is so far and the comparison is with the whole of the week before.
Hit rate. The same definitions as spike outcomes: for each buy- or sell-side volume spike, the follow-through at +5m, +15m and +1h is the change from the spike minute's close, with the sign flipped for sell-side spikes. A hit is a follow-through above zero. Mixed spikes (596 this week) are left out of hit rates and medians. Cells with fewer than 30 spikes are faded. Weeks with fewer than 300 spikes with a 1-hour outcome are kept but not indexed.
Reading it. Descriptive statistics of past spikes, before fees, slippage and funding, from a price you could not have traded at. Not a trading signal and not financial advice.
Weekly spike report FAQ
Which days does a week cover?
ISO weeks in UTC: Monday 00:00 to Sunday 24:00. Week 1 is the week with the year's first Thursday, so a week around New Year can carry the other year's number. The current week's page fills in as spikes happen and says so far; past weeks are final once their last 1-hour outcomes are in.
How is the hit rate calculated?
For each buy- or sell-side volume spike we compare the close of the spike minute with the close 5, 15 and 60 minutes later. A buy-side spike is a hit when price went up, a sell-side spike when it went down (exactly unchanged is a miss). Mixed spikes are left out. The method is the same as on spike outcomes.
Can I trade on these numbers?
No claim is made that you can. These describe what happened after past spikes, before fees, slippage and funding, measured from a price you could not have traded at. A hit rate near 50% means no follow-through either way. Nothing here is financial advice.