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BTTC: what happens after a volume spike?

Every BTTC volume spike this site detects is followed up: the price 5 minutes, 15 minutes and 1 hour later is compared with the price at the spike. The tables count how often price kept going in the spike's direction (the hit rate) and how far, by exchange and by buy or sell side, with every figure's sample size. Past outcomes, not a forecast.

Across 22 buy- and sell-side BTTC volume spikes with a 1-hour outcome (28 Sep 2026 – 15 Oct 2026), price an hour later had moved in the spike's direction 36.4% of the time; the median follow-through was 0.00% (middle half 0.00% to +2.68%). After 15 minutes the hit rate was 22.7% over 22 spikes (median 0.00%). Buy-side spikes: 46.2% hit after 1 hour (n = 13); sell-side: 22.2% (n = 9). That is a small sample (22 spikes with a 1-hour outcome, under 50); treat these figures as provisional.

All history22 BTTC volume spikes28 Sep 2026 – 15 Oct 2026Descriptive stats, not a signalAs of 02:52 UTC

Hit rate +5m
18.2%
median 0.00%n = 22
Hit rate +15m
22.7%
median 0.00%n = 22
Hit rate +1h
36.4%
median 0.00%n = 22
BTTC volume spikes all
22
0 mixed (no side)28 Sep 2026 – 15 Oct 2026

All BTTC spikes · All history

22 volume spikes, 28 Sep 2026 – 15 Oct 2026 (UTC)
After Spikes measured Hit rate Lower quartile Median Upper quartile Mean Date range (UTC)
5 min 22 18.2% -1.92% 0.00% 0.00% -0.23% 28 Sep 2026 – 15 Oct 2026
15 min 22 22.7% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% +0.13% 28 Sep 2026 – 15 Oct 2026
1 hour 22 36.4% 0.00% 0.00% +2.68% +0.50% 28 Sep 2026 – 15 Oct 2026

BTTC by exchange

28 Sep 2026 – 15 Oct 2026 (UTC)
+5m +15m +1h
Hit rate Median Hit rate Median Hit rate Median
Binance 18.2%n = 22 0.00%-1.92% … 0.00% 22.7%n = 22 0.00%0.00% … 0.00% 36.4%n = 22 0.00%0.00% … +2.68%

BTTC by direction

28 Sep 2026 – 15 Oct 2026 (UTC)
+5m +15m +1h
Hit rate Median Hit rate Median Hit rate Median
Buy-side spikesa hit is price up 23.1%n = 13 0.00%0.00% … 0.00% 30.8%n = 13 0.00%0.00% … +2.63% 46.2%n = 13 0.00%0.00% … +2.70%
Sell-side spikesa hit is price down 11.1%n = 9 0.00%-2.63% … 0.00% 11.1%n = 9 0.00%-2.63% … 0.00% 22.2%n = 9 0.00%-2.70% … 0.00%

Last 20 BTTC volume spikes

All history, newest first · price change after each spike
Day (UTC) Time Market Side Level × normal $ in 1m +5m +15m +1h
15 Oct 2026 22:25 UTC BIN spot BUY 3 837.8× $76K +2.86% +2.86% +2.86%
15 Oct 2026 16:07 UTC BIN spot BUY 3 944.1× $80K 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
15 Oct 2026 14:20 UTC BIN spot SELL 3 519.1× $41K 0.00% 0.00% -2.86%
13 Oct 2026 17:03 UTC BIN spot SELL 3 738.0× $121K 0.00% 0.00% -2.70%
13 Oct 2026 00:28 UTC BIN spot SELL 3 709.1× $112K 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
13 Oct 2026 00:22 UTC BIN spot BUY 3 518.7× $34K -2.63% 0.00% 0.00%
7 Oct 2026 02:23 UTC BIN spot SELL 3 2251.8× $201K 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1 Oct 2026 13:10 UTC BIN spot BUY 3 932.0× $60K +2.70% 0.00% 0.00%
29 Sep 2026 12:15 UTC BIN spot BUY 3 308.2× $31K 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
29 Sep 2026 00:03 UTC BIN spot BUY 3 223.7× $75K 0.00% 0.00% -2.63%
28 Sep 2026 14:20 UTC BIN spot SELL 3 199.1× $66K +2.70% +2.70% +2.70%
28 Sep 2026 12:16 UTC BIN spot SELL 3 49.3× $37K +2.63% +2.63% +2.63%
28 Sep 2026 11:43 UTC BIN spot BUY 3 178.7× $115K -2.56% -2.56% 0.00%
28 Sep 2026 10:46 UTC BIN spot BUY 3 400.4× $92K +2.63% 0.00% 0.00%
28 Sep 2026 10:34 UTC BIN spot BUY 3 1051.3× $164K 0.00% +2.63% +2.63%
28 Sep 2026 10:33 UTC BIN spot BUY 3 355.2× $55K -2.63% 0.00% +2.63%
28 Sep 2026 10:06 UTC BIN spot BUY 3 1134.5× $141K 0.00% +2.70% +2.70%
28 Sep 2026 10:05 UTC BIN spot BUY 3 267.7× $33K 0.00% +2.70% +5.41%
28 Sep 2026 05:28 UTC BIN spot SELL 3 359.5× $51K +2.78% +2.78% +2.78%
28 Sep 2026 03:57 UTC BIN spot BUY 3 785.1× $87K 0.00% 0.00% +2.70%

+5m / +15m / +1h: the raw price change after each spike (not signed by side), — until that outcome is recorded. Each day links to that day's spike archive page.

Method

Counting. The same volume spikes as the live Volume Monitor spike scanner, for markets whose base asset is BTTC. For each buy- or sell-side spike, the follow-through at +5m, +15m and +1h is the change from the spike minute's close to the close that many minutes later, with the sign flipped for sell-side spikes; a hit is a follow-through above zero. Mixed spikes (0 in this window) are left out of hit rates, medians and quartiles. HIP-3 markets (Hyperliquid builder perps such as stock tickers) are shown apart from Hyperliquid's own perps, since a HIP-3 ticker can share a name with an unrelated coin.

Reading it. Every figure shows its sample size (n) and each table its date range; cells with fewer than 30 spikes are faded. This page is only indexed once BTTC has 50 or more spikes with a 1-hour outcome in the last 30 days. These are descriptive statistics of past spikes, before fees, slippage and funding, from a price you could not have traded at. They are not a trading signal and make no claim of an edge. Not financial advice. Compare with spike outcomes for all coins.

BTTC spike outcome FAQ

How is the hit rate calculated?

For each buy- or sell-side BTTC volume spike we compare the close of the spike minute with the close 5, 15 and 60 minutes later. A buy-side spike is a hit when price went up, a sell-side spike when it went down (exactly unchanged is a miss). Mixed spikes, with no clear taker side, are left out of hit rates, medians and quartiles. The method is the same as on spike outcomes for all coins.

Can I trade on these numbers?

No claim is made that you can. These describe what happened after past spikes, before fees, slippage and funding, measured from a price you could not have traded at. Small samples swing a lot. Nothing here is financial advice.