Solana After a 5% Day: Historical Price Changes
Observed closing-price changes after large UTC daily falls and rallies.
Source: stored Binance spot SOLUSDT hourly candles; prices are in USDT. This is a close-to-close study of completed UTC days.
Actual source range: 2020-08-11 06:00 to 2026-10-25 23:00 UTC (hourly candle start times). These are historical observations, not a live reading.
Completed-observation cutoff: 2026-10-25, closing at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC. Missing stored days before this cutoff are history gaps; later endpoints are not yet observed.
These are overlapping historical observations, not independent trials or predicted success rates. Adjacent signal days remain separate events. Each horizon has its own eligible outcome count; summaries use all events, including older rows not shown.
Falls of 5% or more
272 events| After signal close | Qualified outcomes | Positive / zero / negative | Median change | History gap | Not yet observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 271 / 272 | 142 / 0 / 129 | +0.35% | 1 | 0 |
| 3 days | 269 / 272 | 146 / 0 / 123 | +0.67% | 3 | 0 |
| 7 days | 263 / 272 | 131 / 0 / 132 | -0.20% | 9 | 0 |
Rallies of 5% or more
342 events| After signal close | Qualified outcomes | Positive / zero / negative | Median change | History gap | Not yet observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 339 / 342 | 170 / 0 / 169 | +0.03% | 3 | 0 |
| 3 days | 335 / 342 | 171 / 1 / 163 | +0.83% | 7 | 0 |
| 7 days | 326 / 342 | 168 / 0 / 158 | +0.57% | 16 | 0 |
Positive, zero and negative counts and the median are suppressed when fewer than five outcomes qualify. “History gap” excludes a completed horizon with any missing or invalid day; “not yet observed” excludes a horizon that has not fully ended.
Latest qualifying days
584 older events omitted from this table| Signal day (UTC) | Side | Event-day change | 1 day after | 3 days after | 7 days after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Fall | -5.02% | +1.01% 2026-10-13 close | -0.30% 2026-10-15 close | -0.64% 2026-10-19 close |
| 2026-10-08 | Fall | -5.74% | -0.45% 2026-10-09 close | +1.58% 2026-10-11 close | -3.81% 2026-10-15 close |
| 2026-09-21 | Rally | +6.95% | -0.28% 2026-09-22 close | -1.56% 2026-09-24 close | -0.01% 2026-09-28 close |
| 2026-09-18 | Rally | +10.90% | -1.47% 2026-09-19 close | +5.48% 2026-09-21 close | +8.37% 2026-09-25 close |
| 2026-09-15 | Fall | -5.51% | +1.84% 2026-09-16 close | +16.35% 2026-09-18 close | +22.39% 2026-09-22 close |
| 2026-08-27 | Rally | +6.93% | -4.57% 2026-08-28 close | -6.77% 2026-08-30 close | -4.76% 2026-09-03 close |
| 2026-08-26 | Rally | +5.66% | +6.93% 2026-08-27 close | +3.47% 2026-08-29 close | -1.61% 2026-09-02 close |
| 2026-08-21 | Rally | +6.91% | +0.11% 2026-08-22 close | +5.60% 2026-08-24 close | +11.13% 2026-08-28 close |
| 2026-08-19 | Rally | +10.81% | +2.67% 2026-08-20 close | +9.89% 2026-08-22 close | +19.55% 2026-08-26 close |
| 2026-07-01 | Rally | +5.14% | +4.22% 2026-07-02 close | +5.60% 2026-07-04 close | +0.48% 2026-07-08 close |
| 2026-06-29 | Rally | +5.30% | -1.98% 2026-06-30 close | +7.41% 2026-07-02 close | +9.02% 2026-07-06 close |
| 2026-06-26 | Rally | +6.17% | -1.95% 2026-06-27 close | +4.53% 2026-06-29 close | +14.52% 2026-07-03 close |
| 2026-06-11 | Rally | +5.92% | -0.16% 2026-06-12 close | +6.50% 2026-06-14 close | +4.15% 2026-06-18 close |
| 2026-06-07 | Rally | +6.91% | +0.48% 2026-06-08 close | -4.98% 2026-06-10 close | +7.19% 2026-06-14 close |
| 2026-06-05 | Fall | -7.61% | -2.26% 2026-06-06 close | +5.00% 2026-06-08 close | +5.00% 2026-06-12 close |
| 2026-06-02 | Fall | -8.67% | -3.53% 2026-06-03 close | -14.27% 2026-06-05 close | -12.49% 2026-06-09 close |
| 2026-04-13 | Rally | +6.11% | -3.23% 2026-04-14 close | +2.94% 2026-04-16 close | -1.42% 2026-04-20 close |
| 2026-04-07 | Rally | +6.91% | -3.49% 2026-04-08 close | -0.85% 2026-04-10 close | -2.15% 2026-04-14 close |
| 2026-03-26 | Fall | -5.64% | -3.95% 2026-03-27 close | -5.88% 2026-03-29 close | -8.77% 2026-04-02 close |
| 2026-03-23 | Rally | +6.07% | -0.69% 2026-03-24 close | -5.36% 2026-03-26 close | -9.72% 2026-03-30 close |
| 2026-02-25 | Rally | +11.48% | -2.44% 2026-02-26 close | -4.21% 2026-02-28 close | +3.17% 2026-03-04 close |
| 2026-02-23 | Fall | -5.91% | +1.40% 2026-02-24 close | +10.28% 2026-02-26 close | +11.22% 2026-03-02 close |
| 2026-02-13 | Rally | +7.56% | +4.42% 2026-02-14 close | +2.51% 2026-02-16 close | +0.40% 2026-02-20 close |
| 2026-02-06 | Rally | +11.63% | +0.15% 2026-02-07 close | -0.79% 2026-02-09 close | -3.58% 2026-02-13 close |
| 2026-02-05 | Fall | -14.95% | +11.63% 2026-02-06 close | +11.03% 2026-02-08 close | +0.06% 2026-02-12 close |
| 2026-02-04 | Fall | -5.89% | -14.95% 2026-02-05 close | -4.92% 2026-02-07 close | -13.92% 2026-02-11 close |
| 2026-02-03 | Fall | -6.37% | -5.89% 2026-02-04 close | -10.65% 2026-02-06 close | -15.22% 2026-02-10 close |
| 2026-01-31 | Fall | -10.21% | -4.54% 2026-02-01 close | -7.28% 2026-02-03 close | -17.04% 2026-02-07 close |
| 2026-01-29 | Fall | -6.01% | -0.20% 2026-01-30 close | -14.45% 2026-02-01 close | -33.50% 2026-02-05 close |
| 2026-01-25 | Fall | -6.57% | +4.54% 2026-01-26 close | +5.47% 2026-01-28 close | -15.20% 2026-02-01 close |
Source coverage and method
Read window: 2016-10-26 00:00 UTC inclusive to 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC exclusive, bounded to the last ten calendar years.
2256 complete days; 11 recorded but incomplete or invalid days; 0 entirely missing dates from the first recorded day through the cutoff (including any stale tail). 11 complete days lack a complete previous day and cannot be signals. 1631 eligible day-to-day changes fall strictly between −5% and +5% and are excluded.
A complete day has exactly 24 distinct, hour-aligned timestamps with finite positive closes. Its daily close C[D] is the close of the 23:00 UTC hour, known only at 00:00 UTC on the following date. A signal needs complete days D and D−1; its change is 100 × (C[D] / C[D−1] − 1). Equality at −5% or +5% qualifies.
A subsequent h-day change is 100 × (C[D+h] / C[D] − 1), for h = 1, 3 or 7 calendar days. Every intervening full UTC day and the endpoint must be complete. No nearby date or interpolated price replaces a gap. Dated row links identify the exact signal source day on this stable page.
The stored hourly archive may start in 2019 even when the parent’s daily API series starts in 2017. Those sources are not merged here. An old archive retains its dated facts and its actual source end; missing data may hide qualifying events. Successful reads are cached for up to one hour.
These spot price changes exclude fees, slippage, funding and execution assumptions. They are historical comparisons, not strategy returns or forecasts.