Bitcoin After a 5% Day: Historical Price Changes

Read window: 2016-10-26 00:00 UTC inclusive to 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC exclusive, bounded to the last ten calendar years.

2835 complete days; 20 recorded but incomplete or invalid days; 0 entirely missing dates from the first recorded day through the cutoff (including any stale tail). 21 complete days lack a complete previous day and cannot be signals. 2546 eligible day-to-day changes fall strictly between −5% and +5% and are excluded.

A complete day has exactly 24 distinct, hour-aligned timestamps with finite positive closes. Its daily close C[D] is the close of the 23:00 UTC hour, known only at 00:00 UTC on the following date. A signal needs complete days D and D−1; its change is 100 × (C[D] / C[D−1] − 1). Equality at −5% or +5% qualifies.

A subsequent h-day change is 100 × (C[D+h] / C[D] − 1), for h = 1, 3 or 7 calendar days. Every intervening full UTC day and the endpoint must be complete. No nearby date or interpolated price replaces a gap. Dated row links identify the exact signal source day on this stable page.

The stored hourly archive may start in 2019 even when the parent’s daily API series starts in 2017. Those sources are not merged here. An old archive retains its dated facts and its actual source end; missing data may hide qualifying events. Successful reads are cached for up to one hour.

These spot price changes exclude fees, slippage, funding and execution assumptions. They are historical comparisons, not strategy returns or forecasts.