XAU Liquidation Heatmap (Estimated)

An estimated liquidation heatmap for XAU: where the model expects leveraged positions opened in the chosen window to be liquidated, across Binance, Bybit, Hyperliquid, Bitget, Gate, HTX, MEXC, KuCoin. Brighter cells mean more modelled liquidations at that price at that time; levels disappear once the price trades through them.

The model places $2.82M of long and $3.30M of short liquidation levels for XAU from positions opened in the last 12 hours (all leverage). Within 10% of the 4,202.5 price: about $1.85M of longs below and $1.78M of shorts above. The densest modelled clusters are longs near 4,171 (-0.75%) and shorts near 4,318 (+2.75%).

Model est-1.0+hl-2026-09-27All leverage · last 12 hoursOpen interest $56.57MAs of 03:31 UTC

This is a model estimate for all tracked exchanges, not real positions.

Long levelswithin −10%

$1.85M

densest near 4,171

Short levelswithin +10%

$1.78M

densest near 4,318

Modelled liquidationslast 12 hours

$269K

exchanges reported $205K

Open interestall exchanges

$56.57M

$2.82M long · $3.30M short levels

XAU liquidation heatmap · 12 hours

Model est-1.0+hl-2026-09-27 · All leverage · positions opened in the last 12 hours · estimate, not exchange data.

Relative intensity (≈ modelled USD) Colour cap top 1% saturate Candles: price across exchanges · dashed: last price

See the same levels as bars at the current price on the XAU liquidation map.

Densest long liquidation levels

below 4,202.5

Price	Distance	≈ Modelled
4,160.5–4,181.5	-0.75%	$142K
4,139.4–4,160.5	-1.25%	$127K
4,181.5–4,202.5	-0.25%	$125K
3,866.3–3,887.3	-7.75%	$104K
3,950.3–3,971.3	-5.75%	$103K

Densest short liquidation levels

above 4,202.5

Price	Distance	≈ Modelled
4,307.5–4,328.6	+2.75%	$146K
4,286.5–4,307.5	+2.25%	$136K
4,328.6–4,349.6	+3.25%	$132K
4,265.5–4,286.5	+1.75%	$113K
4,559.7–4,580.7	+8.75%	$104K

Modelled liquidations near the price

All leverage · last 12 hours

Price move	Longs liquidated (price falls)	Shorts liquidated (price rises)
±2%	$489K	$228K
±5%	$909K	$868K
±10%	$1.85M	$1.78M

How this estimate is made

Model est-1.0+hl-2026-09-27

Inputs are the open interest, prices and volume this site records from Binance, Bybit, Hyperliquid, Bitget, Gate, HTX, MEXC, KuCoin. Every rise in open interest is booked as a new long and a new short at the period's volume-weighted price; falls in open interest close positions proportionally; positions also decay with a multi-day half-life; and a level is removed once the price trades through it (those are the "modelled liquidations"). Liquidation prices are spread over this distance-from-entry distribution, measured on real Hyperliquid positions:

Liquidation distance from entry	Share of new positions
0% – 2%	12.0%
2% – 5%	7.0%
5% – 10%	20.0%
10% – 20%	18.0%
20% – 50%	17.0%

Known limits: prices are last-trade bars averaged across exchanges, not mark prices; opens and closes inside one open-interest snapshot (5 minutes on Binance) cancel out; one distribution is used for every coin and both sides. USD values are "≈ modelled", best read as relative intensity. Full method and a daily accuracy scoreboard against real liquidations: liquidation heatmap methodology. Estimates may be materially wrong; not financial advice.

XAU liquidation heatmap FAQ

Is this XAU liquidation heatmap real data?

No, it is a model estimate. Exchanges do not publish where their users' positions would be liquidated, so every liquidation heatmap for Binance or Bybit (including the well-known ones) is a model. This one starts from real data: the open interest changes, prices and trading volume this site records from the exchanges' public APIs. Actual liquidations are usually lower, because most positions are closed long before they are liquidated.

How is it calculated?

Every rise in open interest is a new long and a new short, entered at that period's volume-weighted price. The model spreads their liquidation prices over a distance-to-liquidation distribution measured on real Hyperliquid positions (74.0% of new positions within 50% of entry; the rest are too far away or can't be liquidated). Falls in open interest close positions proportionally, positions also decay with a 5-day half-life, and a level is removed once the price trades through it. The model version on the chart says which formula and distribution were used.

What do the ranges and the ≥25× view mean?

The range is the replay window: the map shows positions opened in the last 12 hours to 30 days. All leverage uses the whole distribution; High leverage (≥25×) keeps only positions liquidated within 4% of their entry, the short-term levels that get hit first.

How is this different from the Hyperliquid liquidation map?

Hyperliquid is an on-chain exchange, so its positions and their liquidation prices are public. The Hyperliquid liquidation map adds up the real positions of tracked wallets on Hyperliquid only (there is none for XAU, which has no Hyperliquid perp). This page is an estimate for all tracked exchanges together, Binance, Bybit and Hyperliquid included. Use both: where they agree, the level is more likely real.

Can I trade on it?

Treat it as context, not a signal. Clusters show where forced closes may bunch up if the price gets there; they don't predict that it will. Nothing here is financial advice, estimates may be materially wrong, and derivatives trading can lose more than your deposit.