Two meanings of max pain
“Max pain” is a market convention for a calculation, not an exchange forecast. On this site the options and liquidation tools use the name for different things.
| Metric | Inputs | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Options max pain | One expiry; OI by strike | Minimum intrinsic payout. Aggregate OI, not holders. |
| Liquidation max pain | Modelled exposure; longs / shorts separately | Most estimated liquidation USD. 1% bands within ±10% of mark. |
Options max pain, step by step
For one expiry, let S be a candidate settlement price and K an option strike. With OI measured in underlying coin units, pain(S) = Σ calls OI × max(S − K, 0) + Σ puts OI × max(K − S, 0). This is intrinsic payout in coin OI × price units, before premiums and fees. It is not holders' net profit or loss. The Bybit option ticker documentation describes the public OI input.
Synthetic example: not live data. Assume a fictional USD-quoted underlying, one expiry and the following call and put OI in coins. Evaluate the same book at each strike.
| Strike / S ($) | Call OI | Put OI | Call payout ($) | Put payout ($) | pain(S) ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 50 | 50 |
| 100 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 10 | 30 |
| 110 | 1 | 1 | 50 | 0 | 50 |
At S = 90, puts pay 3 × (100 − 90) + 1 × (110 − 90) = 50 and calls pay 0. At S = 100, calls pay 2 × (100 − 90) = 20 and puts pay 1 × (110 − 100) = 10, totaling 30. At S = 110, calls pay 2 × (110 − 90) + 1 × (110 − 100) = 50 and puts pay 0. The minimum is 30 at max pain = $100.
The site's calculation chooses the lowest strike on a tie and returns no value when there is no positive OI. Use one expiry and consistent OI units; mixing maturities changes the question. Actual settlement follows the venue's contract rules, not this hypothetical strike sweep. The Bybit delivery-price API and Deribit expiry settlement-price documentation describe the realized delivery-price data.
Open interest by strike and how it changes
Open interest (OI) by strike is the number of option contracts still outstanding at each strike of one expiry, with calls and puts counted separately. The options page measures it in coin units, normalising each venue's contract size, and sums the public venues for the selected expiry; the charts stack them by exchange.
The “Open interest change by strike” panel subtracts an earlier snapshot from the current one: change = current OI − OI at the snapshot nearest before 24 hours or 7 days ago. The 24h view uses the latest hourly snapshot at or before that moment, at most 2 hours older; the 7d view uses the latest daily snapshot, at most 1 day older. Each venue is matched to its own snapshot, and the panel lists the snapshot times it compared.
A strike listed since then had no earlier OI, so it shows as new: its whole current OI is the change. A strike no longer listed shows its earlier OI as a decrease. Missing history shows as unavailable, not 0: when a venue has no snapshot within the tolerance, its earlier OI is unknown or its current snapshot is delayed, the panel shows no change and names the reason. If the whole expiry was listed after that time, the panel says so instead.
Synthetic example: not live data. Suppose one strike's call OI, summed across venues, was 1,200 BTC 24 hours ago and is 1,450 BTC now. The change is 1,450 − 1,200 = +250 BTC of open calls at that strike.
A rising strike OI shows that positions were opened, not who opened them. Every contract has a buyer and a seller, so +250 BTC of calls does not reveal whether traders bought or sold them, whether they are hedges or spreads, or which direction anyone expects. A falling OI means positions closed or expired, not which side exited.
Why it is a curiosity, not a magnet
Aggregate OI does not reveal who bought or sold the options, their premiums, whether they hold spreads, or their exposure elsewhere. Dealer hedging can involve buying or selling the underlying as price and time change; the direction and size depend on positions and hedges that OI alone does not disclose. A payout minimum establishes no force pulling price toward a strike.
The options max-pain track record compares hourly recorded max pain at 24 hours and 1 hour before expiry with a price approximation at expiry. That price is the Binance perpetual bar open at 08:00 UTC, with an options-forward fallback; it is not the venue's settlement average. Distances describe the recorded sample, not causation or a strategy's returns. Explore the current expiry on Bitcoin options.
Liquidation max pain: a modelled band
The liquidation max-pain tool searches separately below mark for longs and above mark for shorts. It selects two adjacent 0.5% price bins, a 1% band, holding the most estimated liquidation USD within ±10% of mark. With fewer eligible bins the band can be narrower. The quoted level is the band's far edge: distance = (far-edge price / mark − 1) × 100%. Cumulative USD to that edge includes earlier bands; it is different from USD inside the winning band.
A “step” flag means a band sits near a change in the model's assumed leverage-distance distribution; it can reflect assumptions rather than observed positioning. An “edge” flag means the winning band reaches the search limit while a larger band exists beyond it. Neither flag predicts a move.
These are the same estimates as the heatmap, not observed liquidation orders or known account liquidation prices. OI, entry assumptions, leverage priors, coverage and the selected lookback affect the result; collateral changes and cross-margin positions can make actual liquidations differ materially. See liquidation levels and the heatmap methodology and accuracy limits. A bright band is neither a price target nor evidence that resting order-book liquidity exists there.
Checked against the exchanges' own documentation on 17 October 2026: Bybit API: option open interest · Bybit API: option delivery prices · Deribit API: expiry settlement prices. Not financial advice.