Options max pain track record: BTC and ETH
Did price settle at max pain? For each expired Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry in our recorded history, the max pain shortly before expiry next to the price at the 08:00 UTC expiry.
Source: recorded exchange public APIs, never a live quote. Max pain is our recorded hourly max pain for the public options venues (Binance + Bybit), taken from the last hourly row at or before 24 hours and 1 hour before the 08:00 UTC expiry. Price at 08:00 UTC (approximation of the settlement average): the open of the Binance perpetual bar starting at 08:00 UTC, else the expiry's recorded options forward just before 08:00 UTC. The venues settle on a ~30-minute index average before 08:00 UTC, so this is close to, not equal to, the settlement price.
How close price settled to max pain (1 hour before)
Small sample since 30 Sep 2026: fewer than 30 comparable expiries in every group below. Treat those numbers as anecdotes, not a track record.
| Coin | Expiry kind | Comparable / listed | Median |distance| | Mean |distance| | Settled within 1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | All kinds | 16 / 17 small sample |
0.38% | 0.56% | 75% |
| BTC | Daily | 13 / 14 small sample |
0.29% | 0.51% | 77% |
| BTC | Weekly | 3 / 3 small sample |
0.46% | 0.76% | 67% |
| ETH | All kinds | 16 / 17 small sample |
0.82% | 0.92% | 69% |
| ETH | Daily | 13 / 14 small sample |
0.32% | 0.77% | 85% |
| ETH | Weekly | 3 / 3 small sample |
1.35% | 1.61% | 0% |
Expired expiries, newest first
34 listed · last 180 days| Expiry (08:00 UTC) | Kind | Notional (1h before) | Max pain −24h | Max pain −1h | Price at 08:00 UTC | Distance vs −1h | Distance vs −24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC Fri 2026-10-16 | Weekly | $1.01B | 83,000 | 82,250 | 82,260.4 Binance perp 1m open |
+0.01% | -0.90% |
| ETH Fri 2026-10-16 | Weekly | $489.58M | 2,450 | 2,425 | 2,454.3 Binance perp 1m open |
+1.19% | +0.17% |
| BTC Thu 2026-10-15 | Daily | $585.81M | 83,250 | 82,250 | 81,492.4 Binance perp 1m open |
-0.93% | -2.16% |
| ETH Thu 2026-10-15 | Daily | $277.85M | 2,500 | 2,430 | 2,379.3 Binance perp 1m open |
-2.13% | -5.07% |
| BTC Wed 2026-10-14 | Daily | $482.27M | 83,000 | 83,500 | 83,540.5 Binance perp 1m open |
+0.05% | +0.65% |
| ETH Wed 2026-10-14 | Daily | $221.54M | 2,500 | 2,510 | 2,510.2 Binance perp 1m open |
+0.01% | +0.41% |
| BTC Tue 2026-10-13 | Daily | $472.61M | 83,750 | 83,000 | 84,043.5 Binance perp 1h open |
+1.24% | +0.35% |
| ETH Tue 2026-10-13 | Daily | $303.46M | 2,550 | 2,540 | 2,532 Binance perp 1h open |
-0.32% | -0.71% |
| BTC Mon 2026-10-12 | Daily | $470.94M | 82,750 | 83,750 | 83,960.9 Binance perp 1m open |
+0.25% | +1.44% |
| ETH Mon 2026-10-12 | Daily | $241.84M | 2,500 | 2,540 | 2,563.1 Binance perp 1m open |
+0.90% | +2.46% |
| BTC Sun 2026-10-11 | Daily | $405.92M | 82,500 | 82,750 | 82,980.8 Binance perp 1m open |
+0.28% | +0.58% |
| ETH Sun 2026-10-11 | Daily | $187.44M | 2,490 | 2,500 | 2,499.5 Binance perp 1m open |
-0.02% | +0.38% |
| BTC Sat 2026-10-10 | Daily | $441.05M | 82,500 | 82,750 | 82,759.9 Binance perp 1m open |
+0.01% | +0.31% |
| ETH Sat 2026-10-10 | Daily | $287.17M | 2,500 | 2,500 | 2,494.1 Binance perp 1m open |
-0.24% | -0.24% |
| BTC Fri 2026-10-09 | Weekly | $837.24M | — | 83,000 | 82,617.3 Binance perp 1m open |
-0.46% | — |
| ETH Fri 2026-10-09 | Weekly | $609.34M | — | 2,560 | 2,502.9 Binance perp 1m open |
-2.28% | — |
| BTC Thu 2026-10-08 | Daily | — | 85,000 | — | — | Not comparable: no recorded max pain 1h before expiry | |
| ETH Thu 2026-10-08 | Daily | — | 2,650 | — | — | Not comparable: no recorded max pain 1h before expiry | |
| BTC Wed 2026-10-07 | Daily | $527.00M | 85,500 | 85,000 | 84,094.7 Binance perp 1m open |
-1.08% | -1.67% |
| ETH Wed 2026-10-07 | Daily | $377.67M | 2,700 | 2,700 | 2,614.8 Binance perp 1m open |
-3.26% | -3.26% |
| BTC Tue 2026-10-06 | Daily | $536.65M | 85,500 | 85,500 | 85,512.3 Binance perp 1m open |
+0.01% | +0.01% |
| ETH Tue 2026-10-06 | Daily | $383.61M | 2,720 | 2,710 | 2,706.3 Binance perp 1m open |
-0.14% | -0.51% |
| BTC Mon 2026-10-05 | Daily | $464.44M | 85,000 | 85,500 | 86,221.7 Binance perp 1m open |
+0.84% | +1.42% |
| ETH Mon 2026-10-05 | Daily | $300.33M | 2,700 | 2,700 | 2,724.9 Binance perp 1m open |
+0.92% | +0.92% |
| BTC Sun 2026-10-04 | Daily | $355.25M | 85,000 | 85,000 | 85,070 Binance perp 1m open |
+0.08% | +0.08% |
| ETH Sun 2026-10-04 | Daily | $209.95M | 2,700 | 2,700 | 2,704.3 Binance perp 1m open |
+0.16% | +0.16% |
| BTC Sat 2026-10-03 | Daily | $480.17M | 85,000 | 85,000 | 84,509.4 Binance perp 1m open |
-0.58% | -0.58% |
| ETH Sat 2026-10-03 | Daily | $234.83M | 2,700 | 2,700 | 2,680.1 Binance perp 1m open |
-0.74% | -0.74% |
| BTC Fri 2026-10-02 | Weekly | $1.05B | 83,000 | 84,500 | 86,064.3 Binance perp 1m open |
+1.82% | +3.56% |
| ETH Fri 2026-10-02 | Weekly | $483.36M | 2,650 | 2,700 | 2,736.9 Binance perp 1m open |
+1.35% | +3.18% |
| BTC Thu 2026-10-01 | Daily | $457.43M | 83,500 | 84,250 | 83,381.5 Binance perp 1m open |
-1.04% | -0.14% |
| ETH Thu 2026-10-01 | Daily | $257.28M | 2,680 | 2,700 | 2,675.9 Binance perp 1m open |
-0.90% | -0.15% |
| BTC Wed 2026-09-30 | Daily | $545.70M | — | 83,500 | 83,258.7 Binance perp 1m open |
-0.29% | — |
| ETH Wed 2026-09-30 | Daily | $214.34M | — | 2,680 | 2,673.5 Binance perp 1m open |
-0.24% | — |
Distance = (price at 08:00 UTC − max pain) / price × 100. Positive means price settled above max pain. The summary uses the absolute distance against max pain 1 hour before expiry, over comparable expiries only. Expiries with zero notional, no recorded max pain or no 08:00 UTC price are listed as not comparable and left out of the summary, never dropped.
Max pain is not a price prediction. It is the strike where open option buyers would lose the most at expiry; this page shows how far price actually was from it. History starts with our options recorder, so early numbers rest on few expiries. Kinds: daily, weekly (Fridays), monthly (last Friday) and quarterly (last Friday of March, June, September and December). Cached for up to 10 minutes.