Bitcoin Bear Markets Compared
Compare past bear markets at the same number of days after their peak, then compare each recovery from its low. Each line uses daily closing prices, not intraday wicks.
On day 381 after its peak BTC is -33.8%. On day 381 after the 2021 peak (8 Nov 2021) it was -75.4%, after the 2017 peak (16 Dec 2017) it was -80.1%. 4 bear markets are shown, using Binance spot daily closing prices (UTC), from 17 Aug 2017 to 22 Oct 2026. Earlier history and intraday highs or lows are not included.
Drawdown since each peak
days since peak · daily closes16 Dec 2017 peak 13 Apr 2021 peak 8 Nov 2021 peak 6 Oct 2025 peak (active)
Day 0 = peak close. Lines end on reclaiming the peak or at the latest close; the axis is capped at 1,500 days.
Recovery since each low
days since low · multiple of low · log scale16 Dec 2017 peak 13 Apr 2021 peak 8 Nov 2021 peak 6 Oct 2025 peak (active)
Day 0 = low close (1×). The active low is provisional and may move if price falls further. Not financial advice: this page shows what earlier cycles did and predicts nothing.
Bear-market depth and recovery times
calendar days · closes in USDT| Peak (UTC) | Peak close | Low (UTC) | Max drawdown | Peak to -50% | Peak to low | Low to reclaim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Dec 2017 | 19,103 | 15 Dec 2018 | -83.2% | 47 | 364 | 710 |
| 13 Apr 2021 | 63,575 | 20 Jul 2021 | -53.1% | 69 | 98 | 91 |
| 8 Nov 2021 | 67,526 | 21 Nov 2022 | -76.6% | 182 | 378 | 469 |
| 6 Oct 2025 active | 124,659 | 30 Jun 2026 | -53.0% | 242 | 267 | not yet |
A cycle fell at least 50% from an all-time-high close, or is active and currently more than 20% below its peak. Only history since the Binance listing is included.
Bitcoin bear-market comparison FAQ
Which bear markets are included?
An all-time-high episode must fall at least 50% from its peak close. The active episode is also included while its latest close is more than 20% below the peak. Highs are since the Binance spot listing; earlier bear markets are not in this data.
How are the two charts aligned?
Day zero is each cycle's peak in the drawdown chart and its lowest close in the recovery chart. Lines stop at the first daily close above the old peak, or at the latest close for an active cycle. The drawdown chart stops at 1,500 days. Recovery is a multiple of the low on a logarithmic scale. The active low can change if a lower close arrives.
What do the recovery times mean?
Days to -50% are calendar days from the peak to the first close at or below half its price. Days low to reclaim count from the lowest close to the first close above the old peak. Not yet means the threshold has not been reached; missing days are not interpolated.
Does a similar drawdown predict the next move?
Not financial advice: this page shows what earlier cycles did and predicts nothing.