Filecoin (FIL) Whale vs Retail Delta
The FIL whale vs retail delta: the share of top traders' FIL position that is long minus the share of all accounts that are long, in percentage points. The chart holds at least a year of readings on Gate. Below it: where today's reading ranks in the past 30 days and year, and what price did after the year's most extreme readings.
FIL whales are 22.5 pp less long than retail, the 46th percentile of the past year (Gate top traders' positions 45.5% long vs 68.0% of all accounts). The delta is down 0.2 pp in 24 hours, at the 26th percentile of the past 30 days. In the past year it ranged from -38.3 pp (21 Nov 2025) to +13.6 pp (17 Oct 2026). After the top 5% of hourly readings (above -9.6 pp), FIL was higher 7 days later 29% of the time, median -2.0%, over 435 readings on 46 days. That describes the past and is not a trading signal.
FIL top traders vs all accounts
Top trader positions long minus accounts long, ppLoading chart…
Not recorded Chart: TradingView Lightweight Charts™
What FIL did after extreme readings
8684 hourly readings in the past year| Readings | Hours (days) | 24h median | 24h hit rate | 7d median | 7d hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top 5%: whales most long vs retail | 435 (46) | -1.2% n=435 | 29% | -2.0% n=435 | 29% |
| Bottom 5%: whales least long vs retail | 435 (42) | -1.5% n=435 | 62% | -4.8% n=435 | 67% |
Top 5%: readings of -9.6 pp or more; bottom 5%: -31.7 pp or less. A hit is a rise after the top 5% (whales leaned long) and a fall after the bottom 5%. For comparison, across every hourly reading FIL was higher 24 hours later 47% of the time (median -0.3%, n=8658) and 7 days later 41% (median -1.7%). Prices: Binance spot FIL/USDT, hourly closes where this site recorded them, else daily closes. Readings cluster in episodes, so the samples overlap and are smaller than they look. This describes the past; it is not a trading signal and not financial advice.
How to read it. The delta is the share of top traders' FIL position that is long minus the share of all accounts that are long, in percentage points. Retail accounts usually lean long, so the delta sits below zero much of the time; what matters is where it stands against its own history. The chart shows Binance and Gate separately. Compare every coin on the whale vs retail hub and the long/short ratio page.
FIL whale vs retail FAQ
What is the FIL whale vs retail delta?
The share of FIL's top traders' combined position that is long, minus the share of all accounts with a FIL position that are long, in percentage points. Top traders are Binance's top 20% of futures users by margin balance, weighted by position size; the accounts ratio counts every account once.
How is the "after extremes" table built?
We take the hourly readings of the past year, keep the highest 5% and the lowest 5%, and compare FIL's Binance spot price at each reading with the price 24 hours and 7 days later: from hourly closes where this site has them, else from daily closes. The hit rate is how often price moved the way the whales leaned (up after the top 5%, down after the bottom 5%). Readings bunch together in episodes, so the number of distinct days is shown too.
Is it a trading signal?
No. The table describes what happened after past readings, before fees and funding, and a year holds only a handful of episodes. Nothing here is financial advice.