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ETH Whale vs Retail Delta

The ETH whale vs retail delta: the share of top traders' ETH position that is long minus the share of all accounts that are long, in percentage points. The chart runs back to 2020 on Binance and 2023 on Gate. Below it: where today's reading ranks in the past 30 days and year, and what price did after the year's most extreme readings.

ETH whales are 12.3 pp less long than retail, the 22nd percentile of the past year (Binance top traders' positions 60.9% long vs 73.2% of all accounts). The delta is down 1.8 pp in 24 hours, at the 34th percentile of the past 30 days. In the past year it ranged from -22.9 pp (8 May 2026) to +20.0 pp (9 Dec 2025). After the top 5% of hourly readings (above +11.1 pp), ETH was higher 7 days later 18% of the time, median -6.1%, over 438 readings on 33 days. That describes the past and is not a trading signal.

Binance top traders vs all accounts8,760 hourly readings in the past yearAs of 12:00 UTC

ETH whale vs retail Binance
-12.3 pp
top traders 60.9% longaccounts 73.2%
Percentile
22nd of 1y
34th of the past 30 days24h change -1.8 pp
1-year range
-22.9 to +20.0
low 8 May 2026high 9 Dec 2025
Other exchange
-7.0 pp on Gate
same measure, Gate's own traders

ETH top traders vs all accounts

Top trader positions long minus accounts long, pp

Chart: TradingView Lightweight Charts™

What ETH did after extreme readings

8760 hourly readings in the past year
Readings Hours (days) 24h median 24h hit rate 7d median 7d hit rate
Top 5%: whales most long vs retail 438 (33) -0.7% n=438 44% -6.1% n=438 18%
Bottom 5%: whales least long vs retail 438 (31) +0.7% n=438 39% +3.1% n=438 47%

Top 5%: readings of +11.1 pp or more; bottom 5%: -16.9 pp or less. A hit is a rise after the top 5% (whales leaned long) and a fall after the bottom 5%. For comparison, across every hourly reading ETH was higher 24 hours later 50% of the time (median +0.0%, n=8723) and 7 days later 48% (median -0.3%). Prices: Binance spot ETH/USDT, hourly closes where this site recorded them, else daily closes. Readings cluster in episodes, so the samples overlap and are smaller than they look. This describes the past; it is not a trading signal and not financial advice.

How to read it. The delta is the share of top traders' ETH position that is long minus the share of all accounts that are long, in percentage points. Retail accounts usually lean long, so the delta sits below zero much of the time; what matters is where it stands against its own history. The chart shows Binance and Gate separately. Compare every coin on the whale vs retail hub and the long/short ratio page.

ETH whale vs retail FAQ

What is the ETH whale vs retail delta?

The share of ETH's top traders' combined position that is long, minus the share of all accounts with a ETH position that are long, in percentage points. Top traders are Binance's top 20% of futures users by margin balance, weighted by position size; the accounts ratio counts every account once.

How is the "after extremes" table built?

We take the hourly readings of the past year, keep the highest 5% and the lowest 5%, and compare ETH's Binance spot price at each reading with the price 24 hours and 7 days later: from hourly closes where this site has them, else from daily closes. The hit rate is how often price moved the way the whales leaned (up after the top 5%, down after the bottom 5%). Readings bunch together in episodes, so the number of distinct days is shown too.

Is it a trading signal?

No. The table describes what happened after past readings, before fees and funding, and a year holds only a handful of episodes. Nothing here is financial advice.