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SP500: what happens after a volume spike?

Every SP500 volume spike this site detects is followed up: the price 5 minutes, 15 minutes and 1 hour later is compared with the price at the spike. The tables count how often price kept going in the spike's direction (the hit rate) and how far, by exchange and by buy or sell side, with every figure's sample size. Past outcomes, not a forecast.

Across 384 buy- and sell-side SP500 volume spikes with a 1-hour outcome (5 Nov 2026 – 12 Nov 2026), price an hour later had moved in the spike's direction 47.1% of the time; the median follow-through was 0.00% (middle half -0.10% to +0.08%). After 15 minutes the hit rate was 44.3% over 386 spikes (median -0.01%). Buy-side spikes: 49.0% hit after 1 hour (n = 200); sell-side: 45.1% (n = 184).

Last 7 days430 SP500 volume spikes5 Nov 2026 – 12 Nov 2026Descriptive stats, not a signalAs of 15:01 UTC

Hit rate +5m
46.0%
median 0.00%n = 387
Hit rate +15m
44.3%
median -0.01%n = 386
Hit rate +1h
47.1%
median 0.00%n = 384
SP500 volume spikes 7d
430
43 mixed (no side)5 Nov 2026 – 12 Nov 2026

All SP500 spikes · Last 7 days

430 volume spikes, 5 Nov 2026 – 12 Nov 2026 (UTC)
After Spikes measured Hit rate Lower quartile Median Upper quartile Mean Date range (UTC)
5 min 387 46.0% -0.04% 0.00% +0.03% 0.00% 5 Nov 2026 – 12 Nov 2026
15 min 386 44.3% -0.06% -0.01% +0.04% -0.01% 5 Nov 2026 – 12 Nov 2026
1 hour 384 47.1% -0.10% 0.00% +0.08% -0.01% 5 Nov 2026 – 12 Nov 2026

SP500 by exchange

5 Nov 2026 – 12 Nov 2026 (UTC)
+5m +15m +1h
Hit rate Median Hit rate Median Hit rate Median
Hyperliquid HIP-3 46.0%n = 387 0.00%-0.04% … +0.03% 44.3%n = 386 -0.01%-0.06% … +0.04% 47.1%n = 384 0.00%-0.10% … +0.08%

SP500 by direction

5 Nov 2026 – 12 Nov 2026 (UTC)
+5m +15m +1h
Hit rate Median Hit rate Median Hit rate Median
Buy-side spikesa hit is price up 49.8%n = 203 0.00%-0.02% … +0.03% 43.6%n = 202 0.00%-0.05% … +0.04% 49.0%n = 200 0.00%-0.09% … +0.09%
Sell-side spikesa hit is price down 41.8%n = 184 0.00%-0.04% … +0.03% 45.1%n = 184 -0.01%-0.06% … +0.04% 45.1%n = 184 -0.01%-0.13% … +0.07%

Last 20 SP500 volume spikes

All history, newest first · price change after each spike
Day (UTC) Time Market Side Level × normal $ in 1m +5m +15m +1h
12 Nov 2026 15:03 UTC HL perptrade.xyz SELL 2 8.6× $3.20M — — —
12 Nov 2026 14:53 UTC HL perptrade.xyz BUY 2 8.5× $2.37M -0.10% — —
12 Nov 2026 14:44 UTC HL perptrade.xyz BUY 1 4.2× $872K +0.04% +0.05% —
12 Nov 2026 14:38 UTC HL perptrade.xyz MIX 2 8.6× $1.68M +0.12% +0.21% —
12 Nov 2026 14:31 UTC HL perptrade.xyz BUY 1 7.0× $1.25M +0.29% +0.39% —
12 Nov 2026 13:50 UTC HL perptrade.xyz MIX 1 6.1× $852K -0.05% -0.01% +0.34%
12 Nov 2026 13:30 UTC HL perptrade.xyz MIX 2 12.7× $778K +0.11% +0.12% 0.00%
12 Nov 2026 13:20 UTC HL perptrade.xyz BUY 2 8.5× $518K +0.01% +0.09% +0.03%
12 Nov 2026 13:14 UTC HL perptrade.xyz MIX 1 7.3× $438K -0.05% -0.02% +0.08%
12 Nov 2026 13:08 UTC HL perptrade.xyz BUY 3 43.2× $2.54M -0.27% -0.18% -0.08%
12 Nov 2026 13:07 UTC HL perptrade.xyz SELL 1 4.3× $248K -0.26% -0.18% -0.06%
12 Nov 2026 12:51 UTC HL perptrade.xyz SELL 2 9.8× $572K -0.02% -0.09% -0.31%
12 Nov 2026 12:19 UTC HL perptrade.xyz BUY 1 4.6× $269K -0.08% -0.15% -0.51%
12 Nov 2026 12:09 UTC HL perptrade.xyz SELL 2 13.9× $809K +0.09% +0.06% -0.16%
12 Nov 2026 12:07 UTC HL perptrade.xyz SELL 1 4.5× $263K +0.09% +0.08% -0.09%
12 Nov 2026 11:42 UTC HL perptrade.xyz SELL 1 4.6× $269K -0.01% -0.08% -0.02%
12 Nov 2026 10:43 UTC HL perptrade.xyz SELL 1 5.5× $330K +0.01% -0.03% -0.05%
12 Nov 2026 09:27 UTC HL perptrade.xyz BUY 1 5.7× $339K +0.07% +0.09% +0.05%
12 Nov 2026 09:01 UTC HL perptrade.xyz MIX 1 4.3× $262K +0.01% +0.04% +0.16%
12 Nov 2026 08:36 UTC HL perptrade.xyz BUY 1 4.9× $295K +0.05% +0.01% +0.12%

+5m / +15m / +1h: the raw price change after each spike (not signed by side), — until that outcome is recorded. Each day links to that day's spike archive page. Live SP500 price, funding and open interest: SP500 overview.

Method

Counting. The same volume spikes as the live Volume Monitor spike scanner, for markets whose base asset is SP500. For each buy- or sell-side spike, the follow-through at +5m, +15m and +1h is the change from the spike minute's close to the close that many minutes later, with the sign flipped for sell-side spikes; a hit is a follow-through above zero. Mixed spikes (43 in this window) are left out of hit rates, medians and quartiles. HIP-3 markets (Hyperliquid builder perps such as stock tickers) are shown apart from Hyperliquid's own perps, since a HIP-3 ticker can share a name with an unrelated coin.

Reading it. Every figure shows its sample size (n) and each table its date range; cells with fewer than 30 spikes are faded. This page is only indexed once SP500 has 50 or more spikes with a 1-hour outcome in the last 30 days. These are descriptive statistics of past spikes, before fees, slippage and funding, from a price you could not have traded at. They are not a trading signal and make no claim of an edge. Not financial advice. Compare with spike outcomes for all coins.

SP500 spike outcome FAQ

How is the hit rate calculated?

For each buy- or sell-side SP500 volume spike we compare the close of the spike minute with the close 5, 15 and 60 minutes later. A buy-side spike is a hit when price went up, a sell-side spike when it went down (exactly unchanged is a miss). Mixed spikes, with no clear taker side, are left out of hit rates, medians and quartiles. The method is the same as on spike outcomes for all coins.

Can I trade on these numbers?

No claim is made that you can. These describe what happened after past spikes, before fees, slippage and funding, measured from a price you could not have traded at. Small samples swing a lot. Nothing here is financial advice.