Weekly research 2026-39

Observed volume spike outcomes from stored exchange data.

Draft: awaiting owner approval

Coverage and frozen source

Week: 2026-09-21T00:00:00.000+00:00 to 2026-09-28T00:00:00.000+00:00 (end exclusive). Event cutoff: 2026-09-27T23:59:59.999+00:00 (inclusive).

Source read: 2026-09-30T11:54:43.351+00:00. 8374 recorded volume spikes, including 1454 mixed-direction spikes.

First observed: 2026-09-27T13:19:00.210+00:00. Last observed: 2026-09-27T23:59:02.503+00:00.

Counts cover these stored observations. Complete coverage of every hour in the week is unverified.

alerts: volume spikes recorded from exchange public feeds; spike_weekly.load_week

Source SHA-256: be5f60d4de2260abeae4ba3c892b6d62132774c5a4873d5e1cd41b4d9f7abddf

A hit means price moved with the recorded spike direction. Each horizon uses its own measured sample.

Horizon	Measured	Hits	Hit rate	Median signed move
5 min	6920	3187	46.05%	-0.0087%
15 min	6920	3169	45.79%	-0.0196%
60 min	6920	3362	48.58%	-0.013%

Five largest spikes by ratio to normal volume. Quote volume is USD notional as stored by the scanner.

Coin	Venue	Direction	Volume ratio	Quote volume (USD)
ETHFI	binance	buy	2275.53×	528022
WOO	binance	buy	2255.81×	394149
MORPHO	hyperliquid	buy	1646.78×	585978
MAGIC	binance	mixed	1643.16×	150450
XAG	bybit	sell	1367.50×	1081963

Recorded scanner alerts, not all exchange trades or market-wide volume. Mixed-direction spikes are excluded from hit rates.
Event cutoff limits spike timestamps. Outcomes reflect database values at extraction, including later measurements; this is not an as-of outcome reconstruction.
A hit means price moved with spike direction; zero is a miss. Medians are signed price changes, not trading returns or forecasts.
No frozen funding, OI, liquidation or prior-week series in this issue. Missing observations are not zeros; retention may truncate coverage.