Bitcoin Coinbase Premium and Discount Episodes
How long did the paired hourly spot prices stay at least 5 basis points apart?
Fixed rule: premium ≥ +0.05%, discount ≤ −0.05% (5 basis points), for at least three consecutive observed hourly buckets. Gap = (Coinbase price ÷ Binance price − 1) × 100. A neutral hour or a direct switch to the other side ends that side’s run. A missing hour or invalid paired price interrupts it without proving an economic end.
These are Coinbase BTC-USD versus Binance BTCUSDT spot prices, paired hourly closes from coinbase_premium_1h. USD and USDT are different quote currencies; USDT moving off its dollar peg affects this gap. It is an observed price gap, not a pure US-demand measure, risk-free arbitrage or capital flow.
Source span (stored candle opens, UTC): → . 68464 stored hours; 68464 valid paired observations on 2856 distinct dates. Within this span: 79 missing hours and 0 invalid paired-price hours.
Newest archived hour opens UTC and closes one hour later. Newest valid pair: UTC. A run reaching this hour is ongoing only at the latest archived hour, with no claim about live prices.
Read window: → UTC (end exclusive), limited to ten years and 100,000 input rows for BTC only. Computed views are cached for up to 15 minutes; read failures for 30 seconds.
Stored timestamps mark each candle’s open. Episode windows start at the first qualifying candle open and end one hour after the last qualifying candle open (end exclusive). The extreme timestamp is also a candle open. These windows describe hourly observations, not an exact intrahour crossing time.
Completed rankings require an observed hour outside the condition immediately before and after the run. Up to 20 episodes per side are ordered by observed hours, then absolute largest gap, then earliest start. Runs whose start or end cannot be established appear separately as at least N observed hours and never compete for the longest completed episode.
Completed premium episodes
| Side | Window (UTC, end exclusive) | Observed hours | Mean gap | Largest gap | Extreme candle open (UTC) | Termination / boundaries |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premium | → |
451 | +0.8146% | +1.5856% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Premium | → |
326 | +0.4127% | +1.5049% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Premium | → |
238 | +0.5291% | +0.8958% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Premium | → |
179 | +0.0900% | +0.1327% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Premium | → |
160 | +0.3714% | +0.7404% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Premium | → |
142 | +0.1818% | +0.4543% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Premium | → |
136 | +0.1479% | +0.6491% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Premium | → |
132 | +0.2278% | +0.5455% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Premium | → |
127 | +0.5157% | +1.3942% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Premium | → |
123 | +0.1423% | +0.2984% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Premium | → |
121 | +0.2698% | +0.5087% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Premium | → |
110 | +0.0826% | +0.1201% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Premium | → |
102 | +0.1672% | +0.3491% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Premium | → |
99 | +0.2503% | +0.4579% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Premium | → |
95 | +0.2135% | +2.6125% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Premium | → |
94 | +0.1725% | +0.3093% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Premium | → |
93 | +0.4572% | +1.0579% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Premium | → |
93 | +0.0997% | +0.1751% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Premium | → |
92 | +0.1564% | +0.3051% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Premium | → |
90 | +0.1922% | +0.3831% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. |
Completed discount episodes
| Side | Window (UTC, end exclusive) | Observed hours | Mean gap | Largest gap | Extreme candle open (UTC) | Termination / boundaries |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount | → |
612 | -0.9401% | -1.5901% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Discount | → |
577 | -0.1209% | -0.2118% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Discount | → |
451 | -0.1629% | -3.0607% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Discount | → |
439 | -0.1308% | -0.2168% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Discount | → |
369 | -0.1014% | -0.1682% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Discount | → |
368 | -1.5037% | -3.4774% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Discount | → |
330 | -0.1320% | -0.2108% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Discount | → |
272 | -0.0969% | -0.1336% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Discount | → |
260 | -0.0966% | -0.1962% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Discount | → |
248 | -0.1081% | -0.2048% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Discount | → |
238 | -0.1437% | -0.2539% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Discount | → |
223 | -0.4001% | -0.8099% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Discount | → |
213 | -0.2233% | -0.4557% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Discount | → |
177 | -0.7218% | -2.3325% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Discount | → |
176 | -0.1403% | -0.2854% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Discount | → |
158 | -0.0758% | -0.1023% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Discount | → |
156 | -0.1187% | -0.1559% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Discount | → |
146 | -0.1194% | -0.1744% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Discount | → |
137 | -0.1154% | -0.2034% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. | |
| Discount | → |
125 | -0.1346% | -0.3404% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. |
Ongoing, interrupted and boundary observations
Starts at the archive boundary or after a recording gap are unknown. An observed end can coexist with an unknown start. Up to 20 observations per side, ordered by observed duration.
| Side | Window (UTC, end exclusive) | Observed hours | Mean gap | Largest gap | Extreme candle open (UTC) | Termination / boundaries |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premium | → |
at least 126 observed hours | +0.1519% | +0.3201% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. Start unknown after a recording gap. | |
| Premium | → |
at least 103 observed hours | +0.5573% | +0.9586% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. Start unknown after a recording gap. | |
| Premium | → |
at least 101 observed hours | +0.1178% | +0.2189% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. Start unknown after a recording gap. | |
| Premium | → |
at least 93 observed hours | +0.8522% | +1.7338% | Interrupted by a recording gap or invalid price at UTC; economic end unknown. | |
| Premium | → |
at least 78 observed hours | +0.1820% | +0.3358% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. Start unknown after a recording gap. | |
| Premium | → |
at least 76 observed hours | +0.1053% | +0.1564% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. Start unknown after a recording gap. | |
| Premium | → |
at least 61 observed hours | +0.2098% | +2.5119% | Interrupted by a recording gap or invalid price at UTC; economic end unknown. | |
| Premium | → |
at least 35 observed hours | +0.2187% | +0.8620% | Interrupted by a recording gap or invalid price at UTC; economic end unknown. | |
| Premium | → |
at least 26 observed hours | +0.1102% | +0.1721% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. Start unknown after a recording gap. | |
| Premium | → |
at least 25 observed hours | +0.1716% | +0.3233% | Interrupted by a recording gap or invalid price at UTC; economic end unknown. | |
| Premium | → |
at least 20 observed hours | +0.2074% | +0.3150% | Interrupted by a recording gap or invalid price at UTC; economic end unknown. | |
| Premium | → |
at least 18 observed hours | +0.1317% | +0.3642% | Interrupted by a recording gap or invalid price at UTC; economic end unknown. | |
| Premium | → |
at least 17 observed hours | +0.1116% | +0.1427% | Interrupted by a recording gap or invalid price at UTC; economic end unknown. | |
| Premium | → |
at least 15 observed hours | +0.3970% | +0.6382% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. Start unknown after a recording gap. | |
| Premium | → |
at least 13 observed hours | +0.1186% | +0.1700% | Interrupted by a recording gap or invalid price at UTC; economic end unknown. | |
| Premium | → |
at least 12 observed hours | +0.2999% | +1.9812% | Interrupted by a recording gap or invalid price at UTC; economic end unknown. | |
| Premium | → |
at least 12 observed hours | +0.1075% | +0.1821% | Interrupted by a recording gap or invalid price at UTC; economic end unknown. | |
| Premium | → |
at least 11 observed hours | +0.2216% | +0.3422% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. Start unknown after a recording gap. | |
| Premium | → |
at least 11 observed hours | +0.1523% | +0.2286% | Interrupted by a recording gap or invalid price at UTC; economic end unknown. | |
| Premium | → |
at least 10 observed hours | +0.1376% | +0.1775% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. Start unknown after a recording gap. | |
| Discount | → |
at least 456 observed hours | -0.1198% | -0.1818% | Ongoing at latest archived hour; later state unknown. | |
| Discount | → |
at least 369 observed hours | -0.4022% | -0.8325% | Interrupted by a recording gap or invalid price at UTC; economic end unknown. | |
| Discount | → |
at least 221 observed hours | -0.4796% | -0.9026% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. Start unknown after a recording gap. | |
| Discount | → |
at least 71 observed hours | -0.2184% | -0.3907% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. Start unknown after a recording gap. | |
| Discount | → |
at least 48 observed hours | -0.3663% | -0.6187% | Interrupted by a recording gap or invalid price at UTC; economic end unknown. | |
| Discount | → |
at least 33 observed hours | -0.1970% | -0.3325% | Interrupted by a recording gap or invalid price at UTC; economic end unknown. | |
| Discount | → |
at least 30 observed hours | -0.1013% | -0.1917% | Interrupted by a recording gap or invalid price at UTC; economic end unknown. | |
| Discount | → |
at least 12 observed hours | -0.2532% | -0.4336% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. Already in progress at archive boundary; start unknown. | |
| Discount | → |
at least 5 observed hours | -0.1049% | -0.1788% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. Start unknown after a recording gap. | |
| Discount | → |
at least 4 observed hours | -0.1036% | -0.1303% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. Start unknown after a recording gap. | |
| Discount | → |
at least 3 observed hours | -0.1295% | -0.2075% | Ended: observed outside-condition hour at UTC. Start unknown after a recording gap. |