Volume spike hit rates: Week 44, 2026 (26 Oct – 1 Nov 2026)
One report per ISO week (Monday to Sunday, UTC) of the volume spikes this site detected on Binance, Bybit and Hyperliquid: how often price kept going in the spike's direction 5, 15 and 60 minutes later (the hit rate), which coins followed through best and worst, the week's biggest spikes and how it compares with the week before. Past outcomes, not a forecast.
In week 44, 2026 (26 Oct – 1 Nov 2026), the hit rate of buy- and sell-side volume spikes was 46.6% after 5 min, 46.9% after 15 min and 48.1% after 1 hour (up to 85,678 spikes measured). 107,478 volume spikes, 3% fewer than week 43 (110,884). The 1-hour hit rate was 48.1%, against 47.4% in week 43 (up 0.8 points).
Download summary CSV · Breakdowns: exchange CSV · level CSV · direction CSV · market segment CSV
Week 44, 2026 vs the week before
26 Oct – 1 Nov 2026 (UTC)| After | Hit rate | Week before | Change | Median | Week before |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 min | 46.6%n = 85678 | 45.3%n = 90784 | +1.3 pts | 0.00% | -0.01% |
| 15 min | 46.9%n = 85678 | 45.3%n = 90784 | +1.6 pts | -0.01% | -0.02% |
| 1 hour | 48.1%n = 85678 | 47.4%n = 90784 | +0.8 pts | -0.01% | -0.02% |
| After | Hits / measured | Misses | Non-directional excluded | Directional without outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 min | 39921 / 85678 | 45757 | 21800 | 0 |
| 15 min | 40160 / 85678 | 45518 | 21800 | 0 |
| 1 hour | 41236 / 85678 | 44442 | 21800 | 0 |
Hit rate = hits / measured directional spikes; no measured sample means unavailable (—). Measured = hits + misses. Total = measured + non-directional excluded + directional without outcome. Zero signed movement counts as a miss. Mixed/non-directional spikes are excluded. Absent outcomes can mean missing measurements as well as pending outcomes; even for a completed week, missing outcomes may never arrive.
107,478 volume spikes, 3% fewer than week 43 (110,884). The 1-hour hit rate was 48.1%, against 47.4% in week 43 (up 0.8 points).
The week's biggest spikes
By size vs normal minute volume · times UTC · Download CSV| When | Market | Side | × normal | +5m | +15m | +1h | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 26 Oct 10:47 | VANA spot · Binance | sell | 15127.8× | -0.12% | -0.61% | -0.25% | hit |
| Fri 30 Oct 20:11 | ZIG spot · Bybit | buy | 6149.5× | +1.74% | +1.10% | +1.19% | hit |
| Sun 1 Nov 12:46 | ZIG spot · Bybit | buy | 4794.2× | +0.29% | +0.17% | +0.10% | hit |
| Thu 29 Oct 16:49 | BSV perp · Hyperliquid | buy | 4713.4× | -0.06% | -0.18% | -1.58% | miss |
| Thu 29 Oct 20:24 | TLM spot · Binance | mixed | 4240.3× | -5.68% | -5.44% | -10.23% | — |
Best and worst follow-through
Coins with 5+ spikes this week, by median +1h| Coin | Spikes | Hit rate +1h | Median +1h |
|---|---|---|---|
| SLP best | 7 | 71.4% | +3.53% |
| CETUS best | 11 | 63.6% | +3.22% |
| FLOCK best | 24 | 70.8% | +2.73% |
| INTW best | 7 | 71.4% | +1.84% |
| KERNEL best | 7 | 57.1% | +1.77% |
| RARE worst | 6 | 16.7% | -3.13% |
| RAD worst | 12 | 41.7% | -2.57% |
| ZKC worst | 6 | 16.7% | -2.57% |
| TOSHI worst | 8 | 12.5% | -2.33% |
| HOT worst | 13 | 38.5% | -2.31% |
Coins with the most spikes
Top 20 of 701| Coin | Spikes | Hit rate +1h | Median +1h |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 2704 | 49.3% | 0.00% |
| SOL | 2701 | 48.4% | -0.01% |
| ZEC | 2365 | 49.3% | -0.02% |
| ETH | 2352 | 47.2% | -0.02% |
| NEAR | 2336 | 48.9% | -0.02% |
| ENA | 2230 | 48.6% | -0.04% |
| XRP | 2101 | 48.6% | 0.00% |
| HYPE | 2025 | 49.2% | -0.01% |
| PEPE | 1937 | 44.8% | -0.09% |
| WLD | 1684 | 46.0% | -0.07% |
Method
Week. ISO week 2026-W44: Monday 00:00 to Sunday 24:00 UTC (26 Oct – 1 Nov 2026).
Hit rate. The same definitions as spike outcomes: for each buy- or sell-side volume spike, the follow-through at +5m, +15m and +1h is the change from the spike minute's close, with the sign flipped for sell-side spikes. A hit is a follow-through above zero. Mixed spikes (21800 this week) are left out of hit rates and medians. Cells with fewer than 30 spikes are faded. Weeks with fewer than 300 spikes with a 1-hour outcome are kept but not indexed.
Reading it. Descriptive statistics of past spikes, before fees, slippage and funding, from a price you could not have traded at. Not a trading signal and not financial advice.
Cite this report
Swolecharts, "Recorded volume spike outcomes, 2026-W44 (26 Oct – 1 Nov 2026 UTC)", 2 Nov 2026 (UTC), https://swolecharts.com/spike-stats/week/2026-W44
Source: Swolecharts recorded scanner alerts on Binance, Bybit and Hyperliquid. Original report extraction/build: 2026-11-02T02:13:43Z; original data cutoff: 2026-11-01T23:59:59Z. Build status: current selected build. This dated permalink is stable, but its data may be rebuilt; it is not an immutable publication.
Weekly spike report FAQ
Which days does a week cover?
ISO weeks in UTC: Monday 00:00 to Sunday 24:00. Week 1 is the week with the year's first Thursday, so a week around New Year can carry the other year's number. The current week's page fills in as spikes happen and says so far; past weeks are final once their last 1-hour outcomes are in.
How is the hit rate calculated?
For each buy- or sell-side volume spike we compare the close of the spike minute with the close 5, 15 and 60 minutes later. A buy-side spike is a hit when price went up, a sell-side spike when it went down (exactly unchanged is a miss). Mixed spikes are left out. The method is the same as on spike outcomes.
Can I trade on these numbers?
No claim is made that you can. These describe what happened after past spikes, before fees, slippage and funding, measured from a price you could not have traded at. A hit rate near 50% means no follow-through either way. Nothing here is financial advice.