Bitcoin Beta Hedge Calculator
Size a Bitcoin perpetual hedge for an ETH or SOL position using 168 matched hourly returns, with remaining BTC exposure and optional funding carry.
Position and hedge fraction
Signed Bitcoin hedge
Hedge unavailable. BTC reference: Missing, partial or invalid hour at 2026-11-07 13:00 UTC. No gaps are dropped or filled.
Exact contracts and training window
Reference: Binance BTCUSDT, USDT-linear perpetual, stored market ID 1717. Position: Binance ETHUSDT, USDT-linear perpetual, stored market ID 1384.
169 contiguous complete hourly candles per contract. Candle window: 2026-11-05 12:00 UTC inclusive to 2026-11-12 13:00 UTC exclusive. First close: 2026-11-05 13:00 UTC; latest completed close: 2026-11-12 13:00 UTC.
168 matched hourly log returns, covering 2026-11-05 13:00 UTC to 2026-11-12 13:00 UTC. The first return ends at 2026-11-05 14:00 UTC; the last ends at 2026-11-12 13:00 UTC. Every selected pair must have all candles. History refreshes at most every 120 seconds and expires at each UTC hour rollover.
Optional current daily funding carry
Daily carry needs a valid hedge size and fresh quotes for the two exact Binance contracts.
Positive cashflow means received; negative means paid. Current rates and notionals are held constant for a 24-hour estimate, not a prediction of payments or settlement timing. Funding rates can change.
How the historical hedge is sized
beta = cov(alt log return, BTC log return) / var(BTC log return), with log returns measured between adjacent hourly closes. A BTC return variance at or below 1e-12 makes the fit unavailable.
Let X be signed alt notional (+long / −short), b the fitted beta and h the hedge fraction from 0 to 1. BTC hedge H = −h × b × X. Residual fitted BTC exposure = b × X + H. Gross hedge is the absolute value of H.
Worked example: beta 2 and a 10,000 USD ETH long imply 20,000 USD of fitted BTC exposure. A 50% hedge shorts 10,000 USD of BTC, leaving 10,000 USD of fitted exposure. A 100% hedge shorts 20,000 USD, leaving zero fitted exposure. At beta −2, the full hedge is a 20,000 USD BTC long.
A fitted historical hedge can fail as beta changes. Zero fitted BTC exposure does not remove altcoin-specific risk, basis risk, funding costs or liquidation risk. This is no prediction or account-margin estimate. It excludes fees, slippage, exchange risk tiers and USDT depegging; it does not place trades or store positions.