ETH: price after oi_chg_24h_pct>=10
292 events from 2929 matching hours · 2019-11-27 to 2026-09-28 (UTC) · cooldown 24h
| After | Sample | n | Median | Mean | Hit rate | 10th pct | 90th pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +4h | Events | 292 | -0.13% | +0.03% | 44.2% | -1.56% | +2.27% |
| Baseline: all hours | 48536 | +0.02% | +0.02% | 50.9% | -1.52% | +1.54% | |
| +24h | Events | 292 | +0.15% | +0.16% | 52.1% | -5.09% | +5.29% |
| Baseline: all hours | 48516 | +0.07% | +0.09% | 51.2% | -4.09% | +4.43% | |
| +72h | Events | 292 | +0.05% | +0.58% | 50.3% | -8.50% | +10.20% |
| Baseline: all hours | 48468 | +0.20% | +0.28% | 51.9% | -7.43% | +7.70% | |
| +7d | Events | 292 | +0.73% | +1.31% | 51.4% | -12.70% | +16.96% |
| Baseline: all hours | 48372 | +0.25% | +0.67% | 51.5% | -10.74% | +12.93% |
Historically, after these conditions: price change from the close of the event hour. Faded cells have fewer than 20 events. The baseline is every hour from 2019-11-27 to 2026-09-28 where the condition's data exists (48540 hours). Before fees, slippage and funding; not financial advice.
Median path over 7 days
Median price change after the 292 events, shaded between the 25th and 75th percentilesEvents
Latest 50 of 292, newest first (UTC hour)| Hour (UTC) | oi_chg_24h_pct |
+4h | +24h | +72h | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 19:00 | 10.68% | -0.93% | -0.08% | +4.75% | +2.14% |
| 2026-09-11 13:00 | 10.20% | -2.38% | -3.21% | -4.89% | -2.83% |
| 2026-08-21 21:00 | 11.60% | -0.25% | -4.28% | -1.25% | -3.59% |
| 2026-08-19 15:00 | 10.04% | +0.76% | +11.53% | +15.59% | +17.44% |
| 2026-07-14 13:00 | 12.71% | +0.02% | +2.91% | -2.48% | +3.69% |
| 2026-07-03 07:00 | 10.26% | +1.45% | +2.37% | +3.17% | +3.24% |
| 2026-06-15 13:00 | 11.29% | +0.81% | -0.93% | -4.30% | -2.06% |
| 2026-05-04 03:00 | 11.72% | -0.93% | -0.12% | -2.65% | -2.29% |
| 2026-04-22 14:00 | 10.23% | -0.27% | -2.90% | -3.65% | -4.35% |
| 2026-04-17 14:00 | 11.80% | -1.09% | -3.37% | -6.38% | -5.46% |
| 2026-04-13 23:00 | 10.61% | -0.16% | -1.99% | -0.91% | -2.36% |
| 2026-04-08 01:00 | 10.16% | +0.30% | -2.47% | +0.46% | +4.56% |
| 2026-04-06 08:00 | 10.12% | +0.23% | -1.10% | +2.23% | +2.19% |
| 2026-03-31 19:00 | 10.69% | +0.39% | +2.09% | -2.12% | +0.83% |
| 2026-03-17 03:00 | 14.03% | +0.34% | +0.89% | -7.28% | -7.70% |
| 2026-03-16 03:00 | 14.83% | +0.59% | +3.76% | -1.07% | -8.22% |
| 2026-03-13 12:00 | 10.08% | -0.59% | -3.31% | +6.19% | -0.26% |
| 2026-03-04 09:00 | 11.74% | -0.52% | +2.42% | -4.30% | -2.76% |
| 2026-03-02 16:00 | 11.67% | -1.41% | -3.92% | +0.75% | -1.81% |
| 2026-02-25 16:00 | 12.81% | +1.44% | -3.07% | -6.97% | +4.71% |
| 2026-02-06 20:00 | 12.84% | -0.55% | +2.45% | +3.46% | -0.40% |
| 2026-01-13 22:00 | 11.90% | -0.13% | +0.53% | -1.13% | -11.44% |
| 2026-01-02 10:00 | 12.16% | +0.84% | +1.32% | +3.78% | +1.28% |
| 2025-12-19 17:00 | 10.09% | +1.24% | +1.26% | +3.13% | -0.63% |
| 2025-12-09 16:00 | 12.40% | -1.17% | -0.44% | -8.83% | -12.72% |
| 2025-12-02 15:00 | 15.90% | +0.31% | +2.64% | +3.32% | +7.96% |
| 2025-11-10 02:00 | 10.72% | -0.64% | -0.37% | -5.36% | -13.21% |
| 2025-10-26 23:00 | 10.26% | +1.09% | -0.95% | -6.17% | -6.08% |
| 2025-10-12 17:00 | 10.23% | +0.18% | +2.65% | -3.27% | -3.26% |
| 2025-10-02 03:00 | 10.71% | -0.02% | +2.83% | +3.56% | +1.68% |
| 2025-08-22 14:00 | 11.22% | +3.80% | +2.42% | +0.97% | -7.22% |
| 2025-08-13 13:00 | 10.23% | +1.21% | -1.23% | -5.95% | -11.45% |
| 2025-08-12 12:00 | 10.36% | +1.34% | +6.36% | +5.07% | -2.27% |
| 2025-08-08 17:00 | 10.83% | +0.13% | +4.99% | +6.44% | +10.04% |
| 2025-08-07 10:00 | 12.01% | -0.08% | +2.00% | +9.88% | +23.25% |
| 2025-07-28 07:00 | 10.23% | -0.35% | -0.41% | -0.78% | -8.79% |
| 2025-07-20 11:00 | 12.00% | +0.77% | +1.39% | -2.27% | +1.56% |
| 2025-07-16 01:00 | 10.35% | +0.07% | +6.34% | +12.91% | +19.05% |
| 2025-07-10 05:00 | 11.62% | -0.10% | +8.04% | +6.08% | +21.33% |
| 2025-07-09 05:00 | 10.22% | -0.65% | +5.84% | +12.36% | +19.61% |
| 2025-07-02 18:00 | 10.48% | +0.48% | +0.11% | -3.47% | +5.25% |
| 2025-06-24 16:00 | 13.36% | -1.22% | -2.75% | -1.83% | -2.20% |
| 2025-06-16 08:00 | 10.13% | -0.58% | -2.23% | -4.06% | -14.02% |
| 2025-06-10 23:00 | 19.30% | -0.90% | -1.60% | -8.44% | -10.89% |
| 2025-06-09 23:00 | 10.90% | +0.34% | +5.09% | -1.41% | -5.08% |
| 2025-06-03 01:00 | 10.66% | -1.20% | -1.29% | -8.50% | +2.36% |
| 2025-05-29 02:00 | 12.92% | -1.56% | -5.10% | -9.53% | -5.46% |
| 2025-05-27 08:00 | 14.20% | +0.50% | +0.30% | -0.67% | -1.06% |
| 2025-05-22 08:00 | 10.99% | -0.23% | +0.20% | -6.99% | +2.23% |
| 2025-05-20 00:00 | 10.04% | +2.19% | +0.56% | +5.85% | +1.40% |
Try an example
Condition fields
Write a condition as a field, an operator (> < >= <=) and a number, e.g. funding_8h>0.05. Two conditions must both hold (AND). Values are measured at the end of each UTC hour, for the top 50 coins by open interest.
funding_8h· Funding rate (8h, %)- OI-weighted funding across the coin's perps, 8-hour equivalent, in percent: 0.01 means 0.01% per 8 hours.
funding_8h_z30d· Funding z-score vs 30 days- How many standard deviations funding is above (or below) its own trailing 30-day mean.
oi_chg_4h_pct· OI change over 4h (%)- Change in total perp open interest (USD) over the last 4 hours, in percent.
oi_chg_24h_pct· OI change over 24h (%)- Change in total perp open interest (USD) over the last 24 hours, in percent.
ls_accounts· Binance accounts long (%)- Share of Binance futures accounts holding a long position, in percent (a long/short ratio of 2 is 66.7%).
liq_usd_1h· Liquidations in the hour (USD)- Liquidated notional in that hour across the tracked exchanges, in US dollars.
liq_long_share_1h· Long share of liquidations (%)- Share of that hour's liquidated notional that was long positions, in percent.
price_chg_24h_pct· Price change over 24h (%)- Price change over the last 24 hours, in percent.
Method
Price. An hourly price index per coin, chained from the hourly price change of each of its perpetual futures markets, weighted by open interest, so contract sizes such as 1000PEPE and exchanges being added don't distort it. Hours with no price on either side of a gap break the chain, and no return is measured across a break.
Events. Every hour in which all conditions held, except that after an event the next one must be at least the cooldown later. Returns are measured from the close of the event hour to 4 hours, 24 hours, 72 hours and 7 days later; an event too recent for a horizon has no outcome there, so n can shrink at longer horizons.
Reading it. Compare the events with the baseline: a hit rate or median close to the baseline's means the condition added little. These are descriptive statistics of the past, not a trading signal, and make no claim of an edge. Not financial advice.